Merani Martvili v Shturmi

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shturmi win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Shturmi 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
3. 1′KICK-OFF Merani Martvili v Shturmi
4. 4′Shturmi find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
5. 4′We said Shturmi at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Merani Martvili 0–1 Shturmi
7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Shturmi win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
8. 7′A goal for Merani Martvili on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–32–36
9. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Merani Martvili 1–1 Shturmi
10. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Shturmi win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
11. 8′SUBSTITUTION · 8' Shturmi · On: G. Omarashvili · Off: T. Shekiladze
12. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shturmi win 33%)
13. 34′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Merani Martvili · On: R. Chkhaidze · Off: G. Ugrekhelidze
14. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Merani Martvili · On: L. Tsulaia · Off: R. Gagity
15. 45′HALF-TIME Merani Martvili 1–1 Shturmi
16. 46′SECOND HALF Merani Martvili 1–1 Shturmi
17. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Shturmi
18. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Merani Martvili · On: L. Kadaria · Off: L. Gadilia
19. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shturmi · On: M. Tabeshadze · Off: L. Gurgenidze
20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Shturmi win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
21. 56′We said Shturmi at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 23–52–25
22. 58′Merani Martvili score on 58′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–20–5
23. 58′We said Shturmi at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–1 · 76–20–5
24. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 76–20–5
25. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Merani Martvili 2–1 Shturmi
26. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Shturmi win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
27. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Merani Martvili win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
28. 59′We said Shturmi at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
29. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Shturmi
30. 67′Merani Martvili find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
31. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
32. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Merani Martvili 3–1 Shturmi
33. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shturmi · On: L. Kemoklidze · Off: D. Kardava
34. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Shturmi
35. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shturmi · On: Z. Lataria · Off: I. Lekvtadze
36. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shturmi · On: L. Butskhrikidze · Off: V. Khositashvili
37. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Merani Martvili · On: B. Darsalia · Off: L. Tsotsonava
38. 88′Shturmi are down to ten from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
39. 88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Shturmi
40. FTFULL TIME Merani Martvili 3–1 Shturmi
41. FTMerani Martvili 3–1 Shturmi · Shturmi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.