Kolkheti Poti v Odishi 1919 prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Kolkheti Poti 4–0 Odishi 1919 KOLKHETI POTI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolkheti Poti win~~50%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.372

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolkheti Poti win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kolkheti Poti was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
1′KICK-OFF Kolkheti Poti v Odishi 1919
16′Kolkheti Poti score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–7
16′We published Kolkheti Poti at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–7
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Kolkheti Poti 1–0 Odishi 1919
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Kolkheti Poti win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
18′17′: N. Abuladze on the scoresheet for Kolkheti Poti, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Kolkheti Poti
39′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Odishi 1919 · On: R. Imerlishvili · Off: M. Vajs
45′Kolkheti Poti ahead on 45′ through S. Kharchilava. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′We published Kolkheti Poti at 50%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Kolkheti Poti 2–0 Odishi 1919
46′We published Kolkheti Poti at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Kolkheti Poti win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
46′SECOND HALF Kolkheti Poti 2–0 Odishi 1919
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kolkheti Poti · On: D. Pachulia · Off: N. Kapanadze
53′Kolkheti Poti find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 45+8' Kolkheti Poti 2–0 Odishi 1919
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+8' Kolkheti Poti win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
54′We published Kolkheti Poti at 50%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Kolkheti Poti
58′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Odishi 1919 · On: O. Kvernadze · Off: L. Kutalia
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Odishi 1919 · On: A. Khunjgurua · Off: S. Lebedev
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Odishi 1919
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Odishi 1919 · On: N. Kavtaradze · Off: B. Jinjolava
66′A goal for Kolkheti Poti on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kolkheti Poti 3–0 Odishi 1919
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Kolkheti Poti win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
67′We published Kolkheti Poti at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Odishi 1919
77′Kolkheti Poti score on 77′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kolkheti Poti 4–0 Odishi 1919
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Odishi 1919 · On: D. Gabisonia · Off: Z. Sikharulia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kolkheti Poti · On: A. Avaliani · Off: D. Gotsiridze
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kolkheti Poti · On: L. Kvaratskhelia · Off: Gabriel Ramos
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kolkheti Poti · On: I. Kutelia · Off: A. Giunashvili
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kolkheti Poti · On: D. Andghuladze · Off: T. Oloko-Obi
FTFULL TIME Kolkheti Poti 4–0 Odishi 1919
FTKolkheti Poti 4–0 Odishi 1919 · Kolkheti Poti win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kolkheti Poti are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolkheti Poti 50%, draw 27%, Odishi 1919 23%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Kolkheti Poti v Odishi 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kolkheti Poti win50%

Draw27%

Odishi 1919 win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueFazisi Stadium

Line-ups

Kolkheti Poti

Odishi 1919

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolkheti Poti

Odishi 1919

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Odishi 1919	28	−7	35
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	−1	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kolkheti Poti

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Nanava

3 S. Kharchilava

4 J. Dvalishvili

5 N. Abuladze

8 D. Gotsiridze

11 N. Kapanadze

12 T. Oloko-Obi

22 Gabriel Ramos

23 V. Goncalves

24 A. Giunashvili

40 G. Chaduneli

Coach · Dato

Substitutes

2 · L. Kvaratskhelia

7 · D. Pachulia

9 · A. Avaliani

18 · D. Inaishvili

20 · D. Andghuladze

30 · A. Chkhaidze

32 · L. Tskhadaia

34 · I. Kutelia

35 · J. Mensah

Odishi 1919

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Vajs

3 S. Sidamonidze

4 A. Akondo

5 A. Batos

8 Z. Sikharulia

13 L. Koberidze

19 L. Kutalia

20 B. Jinjolava

21 T. Gognadze

22 S. Lebedev

32 S. Bekauri

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · R. Chachua

9 · G. Gabedava

10 · N. Kavtaradze

18 · O. Kvernadze

25 · R. Imerlishvili

26 · D. Gabisonia

29 · M. Sila

39 · S. Tchkadua

40 · A. Khunjgurua

Our number · kolkheti poti winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Kolkheti Poti a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolkheti Poti v Odishi 1919~~1.55 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 35~~10 v 6

~~The market · Kolkheti Poti win~~49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kolkheti Poti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolkheti Poti win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Odishi 1919 win	23%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Kolkheti Poti or draw	77%	75%	+2
Kolkheti Poti clean sheet	39%	–	–
Odishi 1919 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.3 7.2 3.8 1 11.9 12.5 5.6 2 9.7 9.0 4.3 3 5.1 4.7 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolkheti Poti down, Odishi 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,012 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolkheti Poti at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Odishi 1919 away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Kolkheti Poti, 0.96 for Odishi 1919. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ODI 2–1 KOL · KOL 5–0 ODI · ODI 2–0 KOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 28 Aug

KOLKHETI POTI

DWDWDL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

ODISHI 1919

LLLWDW0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	28	+6	50
2	Telavi	28	+7	46
3	Shturmi	28	+8	46
4	Samtredia	28	+11	40
5	Merani Martvili	28	−5	37
6	Odishi 1919	28	−7	35
7	Aragvi Dusheti	28	−10	35
8	Sioni	28	−2	33
9	Gori	28	−7	30
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	−1	28