Kolkheti Poti v Gareji prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kolkheti PotiDrawGareji

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kolkheti Poti 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kolkheti Poti are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolkheti Poti 44%, draw 27%, Gareji 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kolkheti Poti v GarejiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kolkheti Poti win44%

Draw27%

Gareji win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueFazisi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolkheti Poti

Gareji

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kolkheti poti winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Kolkheti Poti a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolkheti Poti v Gareji~~1.44 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 54~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolkheti Poti win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gareji win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Kolkheti Poti or draw	71%	–	–
Kolkheti Poti clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gareji clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.8 8.2 4.9 1 10.6 12.8 6.7 2.6 2 8.0 8.6 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolkheti Poti down, Gareji across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,022 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolkheti Poti at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gareji away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Kolkheti Poti, 1.11 for Gareji. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GAR 3–2 KOL · KOL 1–1 GAR · GAR 2–1 KOL · KOL 1–3 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

KOLKHETI POTI

DWDLWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–1

GAREJI

LWLLWD1–6 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	30	+7	54
2	Shturmi	30	+7	49
3	Telavi	30	+6	47
4	Merani Martvili	30	−6	40
5	Samtredia	30	+9	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	30	−9	39
7	Odishi 1919	30	−8	38
8	Sioni	30	−2	36
9	Gori	30	−7	33
10	Kolkheti Poti	30	+3	32