Gori v Samtredia prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Gori 1–0 Samtredia SAMTREDIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Samtredia win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Samtredia win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Samtredia was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Gori v Samtredia
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Samtredia win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Gori
45′HALF-TIME Gori 0–0 Samtredia
46′SECOND HALF Gori 0–0 Samtredia
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gori · On: J. Owusu-Ansa · Off: S. Akhalkatsi
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gori · On: G. Gazdeliani · Off: A. Koberidze
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gori · On: T. Seidu · Off: A. Sirbiladze
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–45–28
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Samtredia win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gori
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Samtredia
60′We said Samtredia at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Samtredia · On: T. Chikovani · Off: O. Gagnidze
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Samtredia · On: L. Gogitadze · Off: D. Gvasalia
64′Gori find the net on 63′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–20–5
64′We said Samtredia at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–0 · 76–20–5
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Gori 1–0 Samtredia
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Samtredia win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Gori win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 52%)
65′We said Samtredia at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Gori
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Samtredia · On: L. Tsulaia · Off: G. Mandzhgaladze
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Samtredia · On: T. Makatsaria · Off: T. Odikadze
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Samtredia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Gori · On: A. Agiabengi · Off: G. Kurmashvili
95′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Gori · On: G. Bekadze · Off: E. Tabatadze
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Gori
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Samtredia
FTFULL TIME Gori 1–0 Samtredia
FTGori 1–0 Samtredia · Samtredia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Samtredia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Gori 36%, draw 26%, Samtredia 38%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Gori v SamtrediaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gori win36%

Draw26%

Samtredia win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gori

Samtredia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Samtredia	29	+10	40
10	Gori	29	−8	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · samtredia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Samtredia a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gori v Samtredia~~1.36 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 40~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gori win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Samtredia win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Gori or draw	62%	–	–
Gori clean sheet	25%	–	–
Samtredia clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 8.4 6.2 3.0 1 8.1 12.3 8.1 3.9 2 5.8 7.9 5.5 2.6 3 2.7 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gori down, Samtredia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,017 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gori at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Samtredia away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Gori, 1.42 for Samtredia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAM 1–0 GOR · GOR 2–1 SAM · SAM 2–2 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept

GORI

WDLDWL3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

SAMTREDIA

WWLWWL3–0 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	29	+7	53
2	Telavi	29	+6	46
3	Shturmi	29	+6	46
4	Merani Martvili	29	−3	40
5	Samtredia	29	+10	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	29	−9	38
7	Sioni	29	−1	36
8	Odishi 1919	29	−11	35
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	+3	31
10	Gori	29	−8	30