Gareji v Telavi prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Gareji 2–1 Telavi GAREJI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gareji win~~46%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.894

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gareji win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gareji 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Gareji v Telavi
2′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Gareji
13′A goal for Gareji on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
13′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Gareji 1–0 Telavi
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Gareji win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
14′L. Kalandadze scores for Gareji on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
17′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
30′Telavi are down to ten from 30′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–17–7
30′🟥 RED CARD · 30' Telavi
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Gareji win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Telavi · On: A. Datuashvili · Off: T. Zhividze
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Telavi
45′HALF-TIME Gareji 1–0 Telavi
46′SECOND HALF Gareji 1–0 Telavi
56′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gareji
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Gareji · On: N. Grigalashvili · Off: D. Zurabiani
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Telavi · On: P. Marakvelidze · Off: G. Kharebashvili
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Telavi · On: D. Skhirtladze · Off: A. Devdariani
70′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Gareji win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gareji · On: N. Gelashvili · Off: B. Gugberidze
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gareji · On: G. Samadashvili · Off: D. Aidarashvili
79′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Telavi · On: J. Iobashvili · Off: D. Brazhko
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gareji · On: M. Kometiani · Off: T. Babunadze
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gareji · On: G. Nikolaishvili · Off: N. Gelashvili
86′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Gareji win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
90′Gareji score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′We said Gareji at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Telavi find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Gareji 2–0 Telavi
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Gareji 2–1 Telavi
FTFULL TIME Gareji 2–1 Telavi
FTGareji 2–1 Telavi · Gareji win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gareji are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gareji 46%, draw 28%, Telavi 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Gareji v TelaviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gareji win46%

Draw28%

Telavi win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueCentral stadium

Line-ups

Gareji

Telavi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gareji

Telavi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gareji

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Bediashvili

30 D. Zurabiani

26 Z. Eradze

23 I. Gulisashvili

15 T. Kapanadze

10 T. Babunadze

4 L. Tolordava

8 G. Tsetskhladze

17 L. Kalandadze

29 B. Gugberidze

11 D. Aidarashvili

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · G. Nikolaishvili

7 · M. Kometiani

9 · N. Gelashvili

14 · I. Tchikaidze

21 · M. Mushkudiani

22 · N. Grigalashvili

24 · G. Samadashvili

32 · G. Abramishvili

35 · G. Kikvadze

Telavi

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Shevchenko

22 D. Gogotishvili

25 D. Izotov

3 A. Ananidze

5 P. Gabitashvili

8 A. Devdariani

11 T. Zhividze

27 D. Brazhko

21 K. Asamoah

33 G. Kharebashvili

10 G. Nikabadze

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · P. Marakvelidze

6 · L. Salukvadze

9 · J. Iobashvili

13 · N. Galakhvaridze

16 · D. Skhirtladze

19 · D. Kutalia

23 · A. Datuashvili

29 · E. Parkinashvili

39 · S. Bazerashvili

Our number · gareji winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market24%

Us46%

~~Market~~24%

We make Gareji a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gareji v Telavi~~1.45 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 46~~1 v 2

~~The market · Gareji win~~24% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gareji win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gareji win	46%	24%	+22
Draw	28%	28%	0
Telavi win	26%	49%	−23
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Gareji or draw	74%	51%	+23
Gareji clean sheet	37%	–	–
Telavi clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.7 8.0 4.5 1 11.6 12.9 6.2 2.2 2 8.8 8.7 4.4 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gareji down, Telavi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,012 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gareji at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Telavi away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Gareji, 1.02 for Telavi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TEL 0–0 GAR · GAR 2–0 TEL · TEL 0–0 GAR · GAR 3–3 TEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 29 Aug

GAREJI

WDLWLL2–1 · 3–3 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

TELAVI

LLDDDW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	28	+6	50
2	Telavi	28	+7	46
3	Shturmi	28	+8	46
4	Samtredia	28	+11	40
5	Merani Martvili	28	−5	37
6	Odishi 1919	28	−7	35
7	Aragvi Dusheti	28	−10	35
8	Sioni	28	−2	33
9	Gori	28	−7	30
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	−1	28