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Aragvi Dusheti v Telavi

Aragvi Dusheti

1–4Full time

Telavi

Erovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Tsentraluri Stadioni

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Aragvi Dusheti 1–4 Telavi ARAGVI DUSHETI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aragvi Dusheti win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.697

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aragvi Dusheti win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aragvi Dusheti 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
1′KICK-OFF Aragvi Dusheti v Telavi
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Aragvi Dusheti
9′Little has changed for our model: Aragvi Dusheti 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Aragvi Dusheti 0–1 Telavi
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Telavi
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Aragvi Dusheti 0–2 Telavi
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Aragvi Dusheti 0–3 Telavi
45′HALF-TIME Aragvi Dusheti 0–3 Telavi
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aragvi Dusheti 0–4 Telavi
46′SECOND HALF Aragvi Dusheti 0–4 Telavi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aragvi Dusheti · On: G. Pipia · Off: L. Chokheli
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aragvi Dusheti 0–4 Telavi · D. Skhirtladze (assist G. Kharebashvili)
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Telavi · On: D. Skhirtladze · Off: G. Nikabadze
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aragvi Dusheti · On: G. Pipia · Off: L. Chokheli
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aragvi Dusheti 0–4 Telavi · D. Skhirtladze (assist G. Kharebashvili)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Aragvi Dusheti · On: P. Antwi · Off: B. Nuhu
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Aragvi Dusheti · On: S. Suleimani · Off: D. Amoako
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Telavi · On: D. Kutalia · Off: T. Zhividze
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Telavi · On: P. Marakvelidze · Off: K. Asamoah
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Aragvi Dusheti 1–4 Telavi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Telavi · On: L. Salukvadze · Off: D. Izotov
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Telavi · On: N. Galakhvaridze · Off: D. Gogotishvili
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Aragvi Dusheti · On: J. Alavidze · Off: I. Javakhishvili
FTFULL TIME Aragvi Dusheti 1–4 Telavi
FTAragvi Dusheti 1–4 Telavi · Aragvi Dusheti win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aragvi Dusheti win38%

Draw30%

Telavi win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Tsentraluri Stadioni

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Aragvi Dusheti

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Kutateladze

20 A. Oppong

3 T. Molashvili

21 N. Mensa

5 L. Chokheli

13 I. Javakhishvili

10 L. Kobakhidze

27 B. Nuhu

30 T. Bzekalava

16 D. Amoako

18 T. Bregvadze

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · G. Odikadze

4 · J. Alavidze

7 · G. Pipia

8 · P. Antwi

24 · L. Sulkhanishvili

26 · S. Suleimani

29 · G. Tvildiani

Telavi

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Shevchenko

22 D. Gogotishvili

25 D. Izotov

3 A. Ananidze

5 P. Gabitashvili

8 A. Devdariani

11 T. Zhividze

27 D. Brazhko

21 K. Asamoah

33 G. Kharebashvili

10 G. Nikabadze

Coach · –

Substitutes

39 · S. Bazerashvili

4 · P. Marakvelidze

9 · J. Iobashvili

13 · N. Galakhvaridze

16 · D. Skhirtladze

19 · D. Kutalia

23 · A. Datuashvili

28 · G. Parkinashvili

6 · L. Salukvadze

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aragvi Dusheti

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Kutateladze

20 A. Oppong

3 T. Molashvili

21 N. Mensa

5 L. Chokheli

13 I. Javakhishvili

10 L. Kobakhidze

27 B. Nuhu

30 T. Bzekalava

16 D. Amoako

18 T. Bregvadze

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · G. Odikadze

4 · J. Alavidze

7 · G. Pipia

8 · P. Antwi

24 · L. Sulkhanishvili

26 · S. Suleimani

29 · G. Tvildiani

Telavi

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Shevchenko

22 D. Gogotishvili

25 D. Izotov

3 A. Ananidze

5 P. Gabitashvili

8 A. Devdariani

11 T. Zhividze

27 D. Brazhko

21 K. Asamoah

33 G. Kharebashvili

10 G. Nikabadze

Coach · –

Substitutes

39 · S. Bazerashvili

4 · P. Marakvelidze

9 · J. Iobashvili

13 · N. Galakhvaridze

16 · D. Skhirtladze

19 · D. Kutalia

23 · A. Datuashvili

28 · G. Parkinashvili

6 · L. Salukvadze

Our number · aragvi dusheti winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Aragvi Dusheti a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aragvi dusheti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aragvi Dusheti win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Telavi win	32%	42%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Aragvi Dusheti or draw	68%	58%	+10
Aragvi Dusheti clean sheet	34%	–	–
Telavi clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.3 10.1 5.9 2.2 1 11.3 13.7 7.0 2.6 2 7.3 7.7 4.2 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aragvi Dusheti down, Telavi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aragvi Dusheti at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Telavi away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Aragvi Dusheti, 1.09 for Telavi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TEL 1–0 ARA · ARA 2–1 TEL · TEL 1–0 ARA

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2

ARAGVI DUSHETI

WDLLLW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

TELAVI

WLLDDD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	27	+7	50
2	Shturmi	27	+6	43
3	Telavi	27	+4	43
4	Samtredia	27	+8	37
5	Merani Martvili	27	−4	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	−7	35
7	Sioni	27	+1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	−8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	+1	28
10	Gori	27	−8	27