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Model 1.2

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Aragvi Dusheti v Gareji

Aragvi Dusheti
0–0Full time
Gareji

Erovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Tsentraluri Stadioni

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji GAREJI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gareji win38%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.801
The market’s Brier score0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gareji win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gareji 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Aragvi Dusheti v Gareji
  4. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Aragvi Dusheti · On: G. Pipia · Off: T. Bzekalava
  5. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Gareji win 35%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
  8. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Aragvi Dusheti
  9. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–46–28
  11. 59′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
  12. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Aragvi Dusheti
  13. 64′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
  14. 72′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
  15. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  16. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Aragvi Dusheti
  17. 78′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
  18. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Gareji
  19. 83′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
  20. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  21. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Aragvi Dusheti
  22. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gareji
  23. 90′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  24. FTFULL TIME Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
  25. FTAragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji · Gareji win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gareji just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aragvi Dusheti 35%, draw 27%, Gareji 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Aragvi Dusheti v GarejiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aragvi Dusheti win35%
Draw27%
Gareji win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueTsentraluri Stadioni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aragvi Dusheti

Gareji

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gareji29+753
6Aragvi Dusheti29−938

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gareji winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
38% The market33%
Us38%
Market33%

We make Gareji a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Aragvi Dusheti v Gareji1.30 – 1.37
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 38 v 536 v 1
The market · Gareji win33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:48
Our probability · Gareji win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Aragvi Dusheti win35%38%−3
Draw27%29%−2
Gareji win38%33%+5
Over 2.5 goals50%46%+4
Both teams to score54%52%+2
Over 1.5 goals75%71%+4
Over 3.5 goals28%26%+2
Aragvi Dusheti or draw62%67%−5
Aragvi Dusheti clean sheet26%––
Gareji clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 7.9 9.0 6.5 3.0 1 8.4 12.6 8.2 3.8 2 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.4 3 2.6 3.4 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Aragvi Dusheti down, Gareji across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.71
Over 2.52 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsGAR 0–2 ARA · ARA 0–1 GAR · GAR 1–0 ARA · ARA 1–3 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ARAGVI DUSHETI

LLLWLW3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

GAREJI

DLWLLW3–3 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gareji29+753
2Telavi29+646
3Shturmi29+646
4Merani Martvili29−340
5Samtredia29+1040
6Aragvi Dusheti29−938
7Sioni29−136
8Odishi 191929−1135
9Kolkheti Poti29+331
10Gori29−830

The competition's standings before kick-off.