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Aragvi Dusheti v Gareji
Aragvi Dusheti
GarejiErovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Tsentraluri Stadioni
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gareji win at 38%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Gareji 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
- 1′KICK-OFF Aragvi Dusheti v Gareji
- 30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Aragvi Dusheti · On: G. Pipia · Off: T. Bzekalava
- 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Gareji win 35%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
- 46′SECOND HALF Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Aragvi Dusheti
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–46–28
- 59′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Aragvi Dusheti
- 64′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
- 72′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Aragvi Dusheti
- 78′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Gareji
- 83′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gareji win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Aragvi Dusheti
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gareji
- 90′We said Gareji at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME Aragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji
- FTAragvi Dusheti 0–0 Gareji · Gareji win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Gareji just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Aragvi Dusheti 35%, draw 27%, Gareji 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Aragvi Dusheti win35%
Gareji win38%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundMatchday 30
VenueTsentraluri Stadioni
Match timeline
All events
Aragvi DushetiMIN
GarejiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Aragvi Dusheti
Gareji
Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2
Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Gareji a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aragvi Dusheti win | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Gareji win | 38% | 33% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 26% | +2 |
| Aragvi Dusheti or draw | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Aragvi Dusheti clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Gareji clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept
ARAGVI DUSHETI
GAREJI
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareji | 29 | +7 | 53 |
| 2 | Telavi | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 3 | Shturmi | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 29 | −3 | 40 |
| 5 | Samtredia | 29 | +10 | 40 |
| 6 | Aragvi Dusheti | 29 | −9 | 38 |
| 7 | Sioni | 29 | −1 | 36 |
| 8 | Odishi 1919 | 29 | −11 | 35 |
| 9 | Kolkheti Poti | 29 | +3 | 31 |
| 10 | Gori | 29 | −8 | 30 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Telavi
Shturmi
Merani Martvili
Samtredia
Sioni
Odishi 1919
Kolkheti Poti
Gori