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Model 1.2

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Gagra v Rustavi

Gagra
16:00Upcoming
Rustavi

David Kipiani Cup · TUE 27 OCT · David Petriashvili Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GagraDrawRustavi
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Rustavi 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rustavi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gagra 26%, draw 31%, Rustavi 43%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Gagra v RustaviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gagra win26%
Draw31%
Rustavi win43%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundSemi-finals

VenueDavid Petriashvili Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gagra

Rustavi

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 23 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rustavi winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Rustavi a 43% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gagra v Rustavi0.90 – 1.24
Form · David Kipiani Cup this season · since 26 JulyW2 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 21 OCT 00:0124 OCT 23:50
Our probability · Rustavi win

Published at 45%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gagra win26%––
Draw31%––
Rustavi win43%––
Over 2.5 goals36%––
Both teams to score42%––
Over 1.5 goals64%––
Over 3.5 goals17%––
Gagra or draw57%––
Gagra clean sheet30%––
Rustavi clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%
0123450 13.3 13.5 8.9 3.8 1 9.6 13.8 7.9 3.3 2 4.8 5.8 3.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gagra down, Rustavi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.14
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsRUS 3–0 GAG · GAG 1–1 RUS · RUS 1–2 GAG · GAG 2–0 RUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · David Kipiani Cup this season · since 26 July

GAGRA

WWD2–1 · 4–1 · 0–0

RUSTAVI

WDW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1