Troyes II v Chasselay MDA prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Troyes II 1–0 Chasselay MDA TROYES II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Troyes II win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Troyes II win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Troyes II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Troyes II v Chasselay MDA
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Troyes II win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Troyes II 0–0 Chasselay MDA
46′SECOND HALF Troyes II 0–0 Chasselay MDA
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–45–26
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Troyes II win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′We said Troyes II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–49–24
65′We said Troyes II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
65′Troyes II find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
65′We published Troyes II at 38%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Troyes II 1–0 Chasselay MDA
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Troyes II win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Troyes II win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
70′We published Troyes II at 38%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–17–3
76′We published Troyes II at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Troyes II win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published Troyes II at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
88′We published Troyes II at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Troyes II win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Troyes II 1–0 Chasselay MDA
FTTroyes II 1–0 Chasselay MDA · Troyes II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Troyes II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Troyes II 38%, draw 28%, Chasselay MDA 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Troyes II v Chasselay MDABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Troyes II win38%

Draw28%

Chasselay MDA win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Troyes II

Chasselay MDA

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · troyes ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Troyes II a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Troyes II v Chasselay MDA~~1.41 – 1.33

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Troyes II win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Chasselay MDA win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Troyes II or draw	66%	–	–
Troyes II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Chasselay MDA clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.9 7.6 5.7 2.6 1 8.1 13.0 7.8 3.5 2 6.4 8.3 5.4 2.4 3 3.1 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Troyes II down, Chasselay MDA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Troyes II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Chasselay MDA away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Troyes II, 1.33 for Chasselay MDA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

TROYES II

DLWLWL0–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–1

CHASSELAY MDA

DDDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
6	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2