Rumilly Vallières v Istres prediction · National 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rumilly VallièresDrawIstres

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rumilly Vallières 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rumilly Vallières are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rumilly Vallières 53%, draw 25%, Istres 22%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Rumilly Vallières v IstresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the plans

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rumilly Vallières win53%

Draw25%

Istres win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rumilly Vallières

Istres

15Days since last match29

Last match: 16 Oct · National 2 - Group C

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group C

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
14	Istres	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rumilly vallières winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Rumilly Vallières a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. The market has not priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rumilly Vallières v Istres~~1.82 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~5 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	US	MARKET	GAP
Rumilly Vallières win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Istres win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Rumilly Vallières or draw	78%	–	–
Rumilly Vallières clean sheet	33%	–	–
Istres clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market has not priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 5.1 3.4 1 8.8 11.7 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.5 5.3 3 5.3 5.8 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rumilly Vallières down, Istres across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,198 National 2 - Group C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rumilly Vallières at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Istres away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Rumilly Vallières, 1.11 for Istres. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RUM 1–1 IST · IST 0–1 RUM · IST 0–0 RUM · RUM 1–2 IST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

RUMILLY VALLIÈRES

WLLLWW3–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 7–4

ISTRES

DLLDDD0–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	7	+11	16
2	Hyères	7	+7	13
3	Toulon	7	+4	12
4	UF Touraine	6	+3	12
5	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
6	Fréjus St-Raphaël	7	+3	12
7	Hauts Lyonnais	7	0	10
8	Troyes II	7	−4	10
9	Chasselay MDA	6	+3	9
10	Andrézieux	7	+1	9
11	Saint-Priest	7	−4	7
12	Limonest	6	−3	6
13	Lyon Duchere	7	−7	6
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Bourges Foot 18	6	−4	4
16	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
17	Canet Roussillon	6	−11	2