Lyon Duchere v Bourges Foot 18 prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Lyon Duchere 3–0 Bourges Foot 18 LYON DUCHERE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lyon Duchere win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lyon Duchere win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lyon Duchere 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Lyon Duchere v Bourges Foot 18
4′Lyon Duchere score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–14
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Lyon Duchere 1–0 Bourges Foot 18
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Lyon Duchere win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
5′We said Lyon Duchere at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–14
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lyon Duchere win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
29′We said Lyon Duchere at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
32′Lyon Duchere find the net on 32′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Lyon Duchere 2–0 Bourges Foot 18
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Lyon Duchere win: 38% at kick-off, 90% now
33′We said Lyon Duchere at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Lyon Duchere 2–0 Bourges Foot 18
46′SECOND HALF Lyon Duchere 2–0 Bourges Foot 18
51′A goal for Lyon Duchere on 51′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
51′We said Lyon Duchere at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lyon Duchere 3–0 Bourges Foot 18
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lyon Duchere win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
53′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
62′We said Lyon Duchere at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lyon Duchere 3–0 Bourges Foot 18
FTLyon Duchere 3–0 Bourges Foot 18 · Lyon Duchere win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon Duchere are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyon Duchere 38%, draw 29%, Bourges Foot 18 33%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Lyon Duchere v Bourges Foot 18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lyon Duchere win38%

Draw29%

Bourges Foot 18 win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

VenueStade de Balmont

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyon Duchere

Bourges Foot 18

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lyon duchere winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Lyon Duchere a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyon Duchere v Bourges Foot 18~~1.29 – 1.19

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyon Duchere win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyon Duchere win	38%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Bourges Foot 18 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Lyon Duchere or draw	67%	–	–
Lyon Duchere clean sheet	31%	–	–
Bourges Foot 18 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.0 8.9 5.9 2.4 1 9.7 13.7 7.4 3.0 2 6.9 8.0 4.7 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyon Duchere down, Bourges Foot 18 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lyon Duchere at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bourges Foot 18 away: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Lyon Duchere, 1.19 for Bourges Foot 18. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

LYON DUCHERE

LLLLWL1–7 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

BOURGES FOOT 18

DDDDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
6	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2