Limonest v Saint-Priest prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Limonest 1–1 Saint-Priest LIMONEST WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Limonest win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Limonest are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Limonest 46%, draw 26%, Saint-Priest 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Limonest v Saint-PriestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Limonest win46%

Draw26%

Saint-Priest win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Limonest

Saint-Priest

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · limonest winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Limonest a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Limonest v Saint-Priest~~1.66 – 1.26

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Limonest win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Saint-Priest win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Limonest or draw	72%	–	–
Limonest clean sheet	29%	–	–
Saint-Priest clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 5.9 4.3 1 8.0 12.2 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.1 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Limonest down, Saint-Priest across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Limonest at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Saint-Priest away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Limonest, 1.26 for Saint-Priest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LIM 2–0 SAI · SAI 1–1 LIM · SAI 2–2 LIM · LIM 1–0 SAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 21 Aug

LIMONEST

DLWDL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

SAINT-PRIEST

LWLDDD0–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
6	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2