Hauts Lyonnais v Toulon prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Hauts Lyonnais 0–0 Toulon HAUTS LYONNAIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hauts Lyonnais win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hauts Lyonnais are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hauts Lyonnais 44%, draw 28%, Toulon 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Hauts Lyonnais v ToulonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hauts Lyonnais win44%

Draw28%

Toulon win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hauts Lyonnais

Toulon

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hauts lyonnais winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Hauts Lyonnais a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hauts Lyonnais v Toulon~~1.49 – 1.12

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hauts Lyonnais win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Toulon win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Hauts Lyonnais or draw	72%	–	–
Hauts Lyonnais clean sheet	33%	–	–
Toulon clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.8 7.2 4.7 1 9.8 13.1 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 8.9 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hauts Lyonnais down, Toulon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Hauts Lyonnais at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Toulon away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Hauts Lyonnais, 1.12 for Toulon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

HAUTS LYONNAIS

DWWDLD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

TOULON

DDWWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
6	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2