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Fréjus St-Raphaël v Canet Roussillon

Fréjus St-Raphaël

4–0Full time

Canet Roussillon

National 2 - Group C · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Fréjus St-Raphaël 4–0 Canet Roussillon FRÉJUS ST-RAPHAËL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fréjus St-Raphaël win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fréjus St-Raphaël win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fréjus St-Raphaël was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Fréjus St-Raphaël v Canet Roussillon
45′HALF-TIME Fréjus St-Raphaël 0–0 Canet Roussillon
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Fréjus St-Raphaël win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Fréjus St-Raphaël win 36%)
46′SECOND HALF Fréjus St-Raphaël 0–0 Canet Roussillon
51′We said Fréjus St-Raphaël at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–47–21
61′Fréjus St-Raphaël find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
61′We published Fréjus St-Raphaël at 46%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fréjus St-Raphaël 1–0 Canet Roussillon
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Fréjus St-Raphaël win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Fréjus St-Raphaël win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
70′We published Fréjus St-Raphaël at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Fréjus St-Raphaël win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
78′A goal for Fréjus St-Raphaël on 77′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Fréjus St-Raphaël 2–0 Canet Roussillon
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Fréjus St-Raphaël win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
79′We published Fréjus St-Raphaël at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′We published Fréjus St-Raphaël at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′Fréjus St-Raphaël score on 87′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Fréjus St-Raphaël 3–0 Canet Roussillon
89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′A red card for Canet Roussillon on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Canet Roussillon
93′Fréjus St-Raphaël find the net on 90′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Fréjus St-Raphaël 4–0 Canet Roussillon
FTFULL TIME Fréjus St-Raphaël 4–0 Canet Roussillon
FTFréjus St-Raphaël 4–0 Canet Roussillon · Fréjus St-Raphaël win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fréjus St-Raphaël are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fréjus St-Raphaël 46%, draw 28%, Canet Roussillon 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Fréjus St-Raphaël v Canet RoussillonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fréjus St-Raphaël win46%

Draw28%

Canet Roussillon win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fréjus St-Raphaël

Canet Roussillon

14Days since last match28

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

Last match: 19 Sept · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fréjus st-raphaël winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Fréjus St-Raphaël a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fréjus St-Raphaël v Canet Roussillon~~1.50 – 1.04

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~8 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fréjus St-Raphaël win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Canet Roussillon win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Fréjus St-Raphaël or draw	75%	–	–
Fréjus St-Raphaël clean sheet	36%	–	–
Canet Roussillon clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.5 7.2 4.3 1 10.8 13.1 6.2 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.4 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fréjus St-Raphaël down, Canet Roussillon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fréjus St-Raphaël at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Canet Roussillon away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Fréjus St-Raphaël, 1.04 for Canet Roussillon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRE 1–2 CAN · CAN 1–0 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

FRÉJUS ST-RAPHAËL

WLWLLW3–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–0

CANET ROUSSILLON

LLLDD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Rumilly Vallières	7	+10	12
4	Toulon	6	+4	11
5	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
6	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
7	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	6	−5	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2