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Chateauroux v Rumilly Vallières

Chateauroux

4–7Full time

Rumilly Vallières

National 2 - Group C · FRI 16 OCT · Stade Gaston Petit

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Chateauroux 4–7 Rumilly Vallières RUMILLY VALLIÈRES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rumilly Vallières win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay31 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rumilly Vallières win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rumilly Vallières was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Chateauroux v Rumilly Vallières
4′Chateauroux score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–16
4′We said Rumilly Vallières at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–21–16
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Chateauroux 1–0 Rumilly Vallières
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Chateauroux win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Rumilly Vallières win 16%)
8′Chateauroux find the net on 8′. 2–0. 2–0 · 84–11–5
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Chateauroux 2–0 Rumilly Vallières
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
9′We said Rumilly Vallières at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
14′We said Rumilly Vallières at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
15′A goal for Rumilly Vallières on 15′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 64–22–14
15′We said Rumilly Vallières at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 64–22–14
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Chateauroux 2–1 Rumilly Vallières
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 66–22–12
34′Chateauroux score on 34′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 89–8–3
34′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 89–8–3
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Chateauroux 3–1 Rumilly Vallières
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
43′Rumilly Vallières find the net on 43′. 3–2. 3–2 · 69–22–9
43′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 69–22–9
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Chateauroux 3–2 Rumilly Vallières
45′HALF-TIME Chateauroux 3–2 Rumilly Vallières
46′SECOND HALF Chateauroux 3–2 Rumilly Vallières
55′A goal for Rumilly Vallières on 54′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 25–47–27
55′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 25–47–27
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chateauroux 3–3 Rumilly Vallières
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Chateauroux win 25%)
60′We said Rumilly Vallières at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 3–3 · 24–51–25
60′Rumilly Vallières score on 60′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 4–19–76
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Chateauroux 3–4 Rumilly Vallières
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 76% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Rumilly Vallières win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
61′We published Rumilly Vallières at 37%. Our model now makes it 77%. 3–4 · 4–19–77
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
62′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 4–19–77
63′Rumilly Vallières find the net on 63′. 3–5. 3–5 · 0–3–96
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Chateauroux 3–5 Rumilly Vallières
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 96% now
64′We published Rumilly Vallières at 37%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–5 · 0–3–96
64′8 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–5 · 0–3–96
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
67′A goal for Chateauroux on 67′ — 4–5. 4–5 · 3–17–80
67′We published Rumilly Vallières at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 4–5 · 3–17–80
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Chateauroux 4–5 Rumilly Vallières
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 80% now
68′That is 9, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–5 · 3–17–80
75′We published Rumilly Vallières at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 4–5 · 1–14–85
76′Rumilly Vallières score on 76′ to make it 4–6. 4–6 · 0–1–99
76′10 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–6 · 0–1–99
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Chateauroux 4–6 Rumilly Vallières
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Rumilly Vallières win: 37% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We published Rumilly Vallières at 37%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–6 · 0–0–100
94′Rumilly Vallières find the net on 90′. 4–7. 4–7 · 0–0–100
94′That is 11, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–7 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Chateauroux 4–7 Rumilly Vallières
FTFULL TIME Chateauroux 4–7 Rumilly Vallières
FTChateauroux 4–7 Rumilly Vallières · Rumilly Vallières win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rumilly Vallières just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chateauroux 34%, draw 29%, Rumilly Vallières 37%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Chateauroux v Rumilly VallièresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Chateauroux win34%

Draw29%

Rumilly Vallières win37%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup C · matchday 7

VenueStade Gaston Petit

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chateauroux

Rumilly Vallières

14Days since last match13

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group C

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group C

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Rumilly Vallières	6	+7	9
15	Chateauroux	5	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rumilly vallières winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Rumilly Vallières a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chateauroux v Rumilly Vallières~~1.22 – 1.29

~~Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~15 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chateauroux win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Rumilly Vallières win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Chateauroux or draw	63%	–	–
Chateauroux clean sheet	28%	–	–
Rumilly Vallières clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.7 9.4 6.8 2.9 1 8.9 13.7 8.0 3.5 2 6.1 7.6 4.8 2.1 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chateauroux down, Rumilly Vallières across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group C matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group C matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Chateauroux at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Rumilly Vallières away: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Chateauroux, 1.29 for Rumilly Vallières. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group C this season · since 22 Aug

CHATEAUROUX

DLDLD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

RUMILLY VALLIÈRES

WWLLLW7–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nimes	6	+12	16
2	Hyères	6	+7	12
3	Toulon	6	+4	11
4	Chasselay MDA	5	+4	9
5	UF Touraine	5	+2	9
6	Hauts Lyonnais	6	0	9
7	Rumilly Vallières	6	+7	9
8	Fréjus St-Raphaël	6	−1	9
9	Andrézieux	6	+1	8
10	Troyes II	6	−5	7
11	Saint-Priest	6	−4	6
12	Limonest	5	−3	5
13	Bourges Foot 18	5	−1	4
14	Istres	6	−4	4
15	Chateauroux	5	−2	3
16	Lyon Duchere	6	−10	3
17	Canet Roussillon	5	−7	2