Tarbes v Chauray prediction · National 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TarbesDrawChauray

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tarbes 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tarbes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tarbes 46%, draw 29%, Chauray 25%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Tarbes v ChaurayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Tarbes win46%

Draw29%

Chauray win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tarbes

Chauray

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tarbes	7	−1	9
16	Chauray	7	−10	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tarbes winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Tarbes a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tarbes v Chauray~~1.33 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in National 2 - Group B this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~10 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tarbes win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Chauray win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Tarbes or draw	75%	–	–
Tarbes clean sheet	40%	–	–
Chauray clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 9.1 4.5 1 13.4 13.2 5.8 2 9.3 8.4 3.9 3 4.2 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tarbes down, Chauray across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 National 2 - Group B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Tarbes at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Chauray away: 0.75 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Tarbes, 0.92 for Chauray. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National 2 - Group B this season · since 29 Aug

TARBES

WDLWDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

CHAURAY

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	7	+7	17
2	Bayonne	7	+6	16
3	Avranches	7	+7	14
4	Lorient II	7	+6	12
5	Granville	7	0	11
6	Dinan Léhon	7	0	11
7	Saint-Malo	7	+3	11
8	Stade Briochin	7	+2	10
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	7	−1	9
10	Tarbes	7	−1	9
11	Saint-Colomban Locminé	7	0	8
12	Les Herbiers	7	−2	8
13	Saumur	7	−5	7
14	Pontivy GSI	7	−5	4
15	Châteaubriant	7	−7	4
16	Chauray	7	−10	1