Saumur v Granville prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Saumur 2–1 Granville GRANVILLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Granville win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Granville are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saumur 34%, draw 26%, Granville 40%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Saumur v GranvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Saumur win34%

Draw26%

Granville win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saumur

Granville

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Granville	6	+1	11
13	Saumur	6	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · granville winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Granville a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saumur v Granville~~1.31 – 1.45

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~13 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saumur win	34%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Granville win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Saumur or draw	60%	–	–
Saumur clean sheet	24%	–	–
Granville clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.1 8.8 6.7 3.2 1 7.9 12.3 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.7 5.5 2.7 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saumur down, Granville across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saumur at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Granville away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Saumur, 1.45 for Granville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GRA 1–1 SAU · SAU 3–1 GRA · GRA 3–1 SAU · SAU 1–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 21 Aug

SAUMUR

DLWLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–2

GRANVILLE

LDWDWW1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1