Saint-Colomban Locminé v Chauray prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Saint-Colomban Locminé 3–1 Chauray SAINT-COLOMBAN LOCMINÉ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saint-Colomban Locminé win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saint-Colomban Locminé are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saint-Colomban Locminé 46%, draw 29%, Chauray 25%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Saint-Colomban Locminé v ChaurayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Saint-Colomban Locminé win46%

Draw29%

Chauray win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saint-Colomban Locminé

Chauray

14Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
16	Chauray	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saint-colomban locminé winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Saint-Colomban Locminé a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saint-Colomban Locminé v Chauray~~1.36 – 0.93

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saint-Colomban Locminé win	46%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Chauray win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Saint-Colomban Locminé or draw	75%	–	–
Saint-Colomban Locminé clean sheet	40%	–	–
Chauray clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 11.0 8.9 4.4 1 13.3 13.1 5.8 2 9.3 8.5 3.9 3 4.3 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saint-Colomban Locminé down, Chauray across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saint-Colomban Locminé at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chauray away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Saint-Colomban Locminé, 0.93 for Chauray. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–1 SAI · SAI 2–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug

SAINT-COLOMBAN LOCMINÉ

DDLLWL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

CHAURAY

LDLLLL1–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1