Lorient II v Saint-Malo prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Lorient II 3–1 Saint-Malo LORIENT II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lorient II win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lorient II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lorient II 36%, draw 29%, Saint-Malo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Lorient II v Saint-MaloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lorient II win36%

Draw29%

Saint-Malo win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lorient II

Saint-Malo

15Days since last match14

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lorient ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Lorient II a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lorient II v Saint-Malo~~1.20 – 1.16

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lorient II win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Saint-Malo win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Lorient II or draw	65%	–	–
Lorient II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Saint-Malo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.2 10.5 6.4 2.5 1 10.8 13.5 7.5 2.9 2 6.8 7.7 4.5 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lorient II down, Saint-Malo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lorient II at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Saint-Malo away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Lorient II, 1.16 for Saint-Malo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LOR 3–0 SAI · SAI 4–2 LOR · SAI 1–1 LOR · LOR 0–2 SAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug

LORIENT II

WLLWLW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

SAINT-MALO

DWDWLW1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1