Les Herbiers v Pontivy GSI prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Les Herbiers 0–0 Pontivy GSI LES HERBIERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Les Herbiers win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Les Herbiers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Les Herbiers 53%, draw 26%, Pontivy GSI 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Les Herbiers v Pontivy GSIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Les Herbiers win53%

Draw26%

Pontivy GSI win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

VenueStade Massabielle

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Les Herbiers

Pontivy GSI

15Days since last match14

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · les herbiers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Les Herbiers a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Les Herbiers v Pontivy GSI~~1.62 – 0.93

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Les Herbiers win	53%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Pontivy GSI win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Les Herbiers or draw	79%	–	–
Les Herbiers clean sheet	40%	–	–
Pontivy GSI clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 6.8 3.4 1 12.2 12.1 5.4 2 10.2 9.3 4.3 3 5.5 5.1 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Les Herbiers down, Pontivy GSI across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Les Herbiers at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pontivy GSI away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Les Herbiers, 0.93 for Pontivy GSI. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug

LES HERBIERS

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

PONTIVY GSI

DDLLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1