Dinan Léhon v Bayonne prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Dinan Léhon 0–2 Bayonne DINAN LÉHON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinan Léhon win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinan Léhon just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinan Léhon 37%, draw 28%, Bayonne 35%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Dinan Léhon v BayonneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinan Léhon win37%

Draw28%

Bayonne win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

VenueStade du Clos Gastel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinan Léhon

Bayonne

14Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinan léhon winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Dinan Léhon a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinan Léhon v Bayonne~~1.25 – 1.20

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinan Léhon win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bayonne win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Dinan Léhon or draw	65%	–	–
Dinan Léhon clean sheet	31%	–	–
Bayonne clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.5 9.9 6.3 2.5 1 10.3 13.3 7.6 3.1 2 6.7 7.9 4.7 3 2.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinan Léhon down, Bayonne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinan Léhon at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bayonne away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Dinan Léhon, 1.20 for Bayonne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAY 2–1 DIN · DIN 2–3 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 21 Aug

DINAN LÉHON

LWWDWD0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

BAYONNE

WWWWDL3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1