Châteaubriant v Stade Briochin prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Châteaubriant 1–1 Stade Briochin STADE BRIOCHIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Stade Briochin win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Briochin win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stade Briochin 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Châteaubriant v Stade Briochin
43′A goal for Stade Briochin on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Châteaubriant 0–1 Stade Briochin
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Stade Briochin win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
44′We said Stade Briochin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME Châteaubriant 0–1 Stade Briochin
46′SECOND HALF Châteaubriant 0–1 Stade Briochin
63′We said Stade Briochin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Stade Briochin win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
73′We said Stade Briochin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
80′We said Stade Briochin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Stade Briochin win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We said Stade Briochin at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
96′Châteaubriant score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
96′We said Stade Briochin at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Châteaubriant 1–1 Stade Briochin
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Stade Briochin win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Stade Briochin win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Châteaubriant 1–1 Stade Briochin
FTChâteaubriant 1–1 Stade Briochin · Stade Briochin win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Briochin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Châteaubriant 30%, draw 27%, Stade Briochin 43%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Châteaubriant v Stade BriochinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Châteaubriant win30%

Draw27%

Stade Briochin win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Châteaubriant

Stade Briochin

14Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade briochin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Stade Briochin a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Châteaubriant v Stade Briochin~~1.14 – 1.44

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Châteaubriant win	30%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Stade Briochin win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Châteaubriant or draw	57%	–	–
Châteaubriant clean sheet	24%	–	–
Stade Briochin clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 10.4 7.8 3.8 1 8.2 12.7 8.7 4.2 2 5.0 7.0 5.0 2.4 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Châteaubriant down, Stade Briochin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Châteaubriant at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Briochin away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Châteaubriant, 1.44 for Stade Briochin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–1 CHA · CHA 1–1 STA · STA 0–0 CHA · CHA 0–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug

CHÂTEAUBRIANT

LDDLDL0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–3

STADE BRIOCHIN

WDDDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1