Bayonne v Avranches prediction · National 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BayonneDrawAvranches

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bayonne 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayonne are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayonne 40%, draw 28%, Avranches 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bayonne v AvranchesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bayonne win40%

Draw28%

Avranches win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayonne

Avranches

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · National 2 - Group B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bayonne	7	+6	16
3	Avranches	7	+7	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayonne winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bayonne a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayonne v Avranches~~1.34 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in National 2 - Group B this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayonne win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Avranches win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Bayonne or draw	68%	–	–
Bayonne clean sheet	31%	–	–
Avranches clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.0 9.0 5.6 2.2 1 10.4 13.2 7.3 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 4.8 3 3.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayonne down, Avranches across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 National 2 - Group B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayonne at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Avranches away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Bayonne, 1.17 for Avranches. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AVR 0–2 BAY · BAY 2–1 AVR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National 2 - Group B this season · since 28 Aug

BAYONNE

WWWDLW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

AVRANCHES

DWDLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	7	+7	17
2	Bayonne	7	+6	16
3	Avranches	7	+7	14
4	Lorient II	7	+6	12
5	Granville	7	0	11
6	Dinan Léhon	7	0	11
7	Saint-Malo	7	+3	11
8	Stade Briochin	7	+2	10
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	7	−1	9
10	Tarbes	7	−1	9
11	Saint-Colomban Locminé	7	0	8
12	Les Herbiers	7	−2	8
13	Saumur	7	−5	7
14	Pontivy GSI	7	−5	4
15	Châteaubriant	7	−7	4
16	Chauray	7	−10	1