Avranches v Tarbes prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Avranches 2–0 Tarbes AVRANCHES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avranches win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avranches win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avranches was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
1′KICK-OFF Avranches v Tarbes
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Avranches win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Avranches win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′HALF-TIME Avranches 0–0 Tarbes
46′Avranches find the net on 46′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
46′SECOND HALF Avranches 0–0 Tarbes
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Avranches 1–0 Tarbes
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Avranches win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Avranches win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
47′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
57′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
61′A red card for Avranches on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 81–16–3
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Avranches
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Avranches win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
70′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Avranches win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
85′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′A goal for Avranches on 86′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Avranches 2–0 Tarbes
87′We published Avranches at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Avranches 2–0 Tarbes
FTAvranches 2–0 Tarbes · Avranches win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avranches are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avranches 43%, draw 29%, Tarbes 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Avranches v TarbesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Avranches win43%

Draw29%

Tarbes win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 7

VenueStade Rene Fenouillere

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avranches

Tarbes

15Days since last match14

Last match: 2 Oct · National 2 - Group B

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group B

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avranches winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Avranches a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avranches v Tarbes~~1.31 – 0.99

~~Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avranches win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Tarbes win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Avranches or draw	72%	–	–
Avranches clean sheet	38%	–	–
Tarbes clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.0 9.5 4.9 1 12.7 13.3 6.3 2.1 2 8.5 8.2 4.1 3 3.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avranches down, Tarbes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 National 2 - Group B matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Avranches at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tarbes away: 0.33 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Avranches, 0.99 for Tarbes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group B this season · since 22 Aug

AVRANCHES

WDWDLW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

TARBES

DWDLWD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Angoulême	6	+6	14
2	Bayonne	6	+4	13
3	Granville	6	+1	11
4	Avranches	6	+5	11
5	Dinan Léhon	6	+2	11
6	Saint-Malo	6	+5	11
7	Tarbes	6	+1	9
8	Lorient II	6	+4	9
9	Le Poiré sur Vie	6	0	9
10	Stade Briochin	6	+2	9
11	Les Herbiers	6	−2	7
12	Saint-Colomban Locminé	6	−2	5
13	Saumur	6	−6	4
14	Pontivy GSI	6	−5	3
15	Châteaubriant	6	−7	3
16	Chauray	6	−8	1