Le Pays du Valois v Montlouis prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Le Pays du Valois 4–1 Montlouis LE PAYS DU VALOIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Le Pays du Valois win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Le Pays du Valois are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Le Pays du Valois 49%, draw 25%, Montlouis 26%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Le Pays du Valois v MontlouisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Le Pays du Valois win49%

Draw25%

Montlouis win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Le Pays du Valois

Montlouis

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · le pays du valois winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Le Pays du Valois a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Le Pays du Valois v Montlouis~~1.82 – 1.27

~~Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~12 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Le Pays du Valois win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Montlouis win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Le Pays du Valois or draw	74%	–	–
Le Pays du Valois clean sheet	29%	–	–
Montlouis clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.0 4.8 3.8 1 7.2 11.5 6.6 2.8 2 7.5 9.2 5.9 2.5 3 4.5 5.6 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Le Pays du Valois down, Montlouis across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group A matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Le Pays du Valois at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Montlouis away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Le Pays du Valois, 1.27 for Montlouis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

LE PAYS DU VALOIS

LDLDLW2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

MONTLOUIS

DDLDLW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Furiani-Agliani	6	+10	14
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
3	Racing Colombes 92	6	+5	13
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	6	+3	12
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
6	Creteil	6	+3	11
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9
8	Biesheim	6	+4	8
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
11	Epinal	6	−1	5
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1