Haguenau v St Maur Lusitanos prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Haguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos ST MAUR LUSITANOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said St Maur Lusitanos win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St Maur Lusitanos win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: St Maur Lusitanos 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF Haguenau v St Maur Lusitanos
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Haguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos
19′A goal for St Maur Lusitanos on 1′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was St Maur Lusitanos win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Haguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos
46′SECOND HALF Haguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' St Maur Lusitanos win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 25–50–26
61′We said St Maur Lusitanos at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–52–24
70′We said St Maur Lusitanos at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' St Maur Lusitanos win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
77′We said St Maur Lusitanos at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
83′We said St Maur Lusitanos at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' St Maur Lusitanos win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
90′We said St Maur Lusitanos at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Haguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos
FTHaguenau 1–1 St Maur Lusitanos · St Maur Lusitanos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with St Maur Lusitanos just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Haguenau 34%, draw 29%, St Maur Lusitanos 36%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Haguenau v St Maur LusitanosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Haguenau win34%

Draw29%

St Maur Lusitanos win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Haguenau

St Maur Lusitanos

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st maur lusitanos winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make St Maur Lusitanos a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Haguenau v St Maur Lusitanos~~1.24 – 1.28

~~Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haguenau win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
St Maur Lusitanos win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Haguenau or draw	64%	–	–
Haguenau clean sheet	28%	–	–
St Maur Lusitanos clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 9.0 6.6 2.9 1 8.7 13.8 7.9 3.4 2 6.2 7.6 4.9 2.1 3 2.6 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Haguenau down, St Maur Lusitanos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group A matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2018/19 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haguenau at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). St Maur Lusitanos away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Haguenau, 1.28 for St Maur Lusitanos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2018/19

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~STM 1–2 HAG · HAG 1–1 STM · HAG 0–0 STM · STM 3–0 HAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

HAGUENAU

LWLWLL0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–5

ST MAUR LUSITANOS

DWWWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Furiani-Agliani	6	+10	14
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
3	Racing Colombes 92	6	+5	13
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	6	+3	12
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
6	Creteil	6	+3	11
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9
8	Biesheim	6	+4	8
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
11	Epinal	6	−1	5
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1