Creteil v Furiani-Agliani prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Creteil 3–1 Furiani-Agliani CRETEIL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Creteil win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 3 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Creteil win at 36%.
46′Furiani-Agliani score on 45′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
51′We published Creteil at 36%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
81′We published Creteil at 36%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Creteil win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
82′Creteil score on 20′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′We published Creteil at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′A red card for Creteil on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′🟥 RED CARD · 45+4' Creteil
FTFULL TIME Creteil 3–1 Furiani-Agliani
FTCreteil 3–1 Furiani-Agliani · Creteil win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Creteil just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Creteil 36%, draw 30%, Furiani-Agliani 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Creteil v Furiani-AglianiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Creteil win36%

Draw30%

Furiani-Agliani win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Creteil

Furiani-Agliani

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · creteil winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Creteil a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Creteil v Furiani-Agliani~~1.22 – 1.18

~~Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Creteil win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Furiani-Agliani win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Creteil or draw	66%	–	–
Creteil clean sheet	31%	–	–
Furiani-Agliani clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 10.9 9.3 6.3 2.6 1 9.7 14.1 7.5 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.5 3 2.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Creteil down, Furiani-Agliani across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group A matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Creteil at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Furiani-Agliani away: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Creteil, 1.18 for Furiani-Agliani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FUR 0–0 CRE · CRE 1–1 FUR · FUR 1–0 CRE · CRE 2–3 FUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

CRETEIL

WDLDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

FURIANI-AGLIANI

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Furiani-Agliani	6	+10	14
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
3	Racing Colombes 92	6	+5	13
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	6	+3	12
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
6	Creteil	6	+3	11
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9
8	Biesheim	6	+4	8
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
11	Epinal	6	−1	5
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1