Colmar v St Maur Lusitanos prediction · National 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ColmarDrawSt Maur Lusitanos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · St Maur Lusitanos 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Maur Lusitanos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colmar 31%, draw 30%, St Maur Lusitanos 39%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Colmar v St Maur LusitanosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Colmar win31%

Draw30%

St Maur Lusitanos win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colmar

St Maur Lusitanos

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st maur lusitanos winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make St Maur Lusitanos a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colmar v St Maur Lusitanos~~1.13 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in National 2 - Group A this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~14 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colmar win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
St Maur Lusitanos win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Colmar or draw	61%	–	–
Colmar clean sheet	27%	–	–
St Maur Lusitanos clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.5 10.0 7.5 3.3 1 8.4 13.9 8.2 3.7 2 5.5 7.1 4.6 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colmar down, St Maur Lusitanos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 National 2 - Group A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colmar at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). St Maur Lusitanos away: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Colmar, 1.32 for St Maur Lusitanos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STM 1–1 COL · COL 2–0 STM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National 2 - Group A this season · since 29 Aug

COLMAR

WDDLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–3

ST MAUR LUSITANOS

WWWDWD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Maur Lusitanos	7	+5	15
2	Chambly Thelle FC	7	+6	15
3	Creteil	7	+5	14
4	Racing Colombes 92	7	+5	14
5	Furiani-Agliani	7	+8	14
6	Feignies-Aulnoye	7	+3	13
7	Biesheim	7	+5	11
8	Dieppe	7	0	9
9	Le Pays du Valois	7	+1	8
10	Bastia-Borgo	7	−1	8
11	Haguenau	7	−3	7
12	Montlouis	7	−6	6
13	Epinal	7	−2	5
14	Colmar	7	−8	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1