Chantilly v Le Pays du Valois prediction · National 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChantillyDrawLe Pays du Valois

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Le Pays du Valois 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Le Pays du Valois are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chantilly 29%, draw 25%, Le Pays du Valois 46%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Chantilly v Le Pays du ValoisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chantilly win29%

Draw25%

Le Pays du Valois win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chantilly

Le Pays du Valois

28Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

Last match: 17 Oct · National 2 - Group A

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Le Pays du Valois	7	+1	8
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · le pays du valois winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Le Pays du Valois a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chantilly v Le Pays du Valois~~1.40 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 8~~16 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chantilly win	29%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Le Pays du Valois win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Chantilly or draw	54%	–	–
Chantilly clean sheet	17%	–	–
Le Pays du Valois clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 6.2 6.6 4.1 1 4.5 11.1 8.9 5.5 2.6 2 4.0 6.9 6.2 3.8 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chantilly down, Le Pays du Valois across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 National 2 - Group A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chantilly at home: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 4). Le Pays du Valois away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Chantilly, 1.83 for Le Pays du Valois. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEP 0–0 CHA · CHA 5–1 LEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

CHANTILLY

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–4

LE PAYS DU VALOIS

DLDLWW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St Maur Lusitanos	7	+5	15
2	Chambly Thelle FC	7	+6	15
3	Creteil	7	+5	14
4	Racing Colombes 92	7	+5	14
5	Furiani-Agliani	7	+8	14
6	Feignies-Aulnoye	7	+3	13
7	Biesheim	7	+5	11
8	Dieppe	7	0	9
9	Le Pays du Valois	7	+1	8
10	Bastia-Borgo	7	−1	8
11	Haguenau	7	−3	7
12	Montlouis	7	−6	6
13	Epinal	7	−2	5
14	Colmar	7	−8	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1