Chambly Thelle FC v Dieppe prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Chambly Thelle FC 3–2 Dieppe CHAMBLY THELLE FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chambly Thelle FC win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chambly Thelle FC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chambly Thelle FC 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
1′KICK-OFF Chambly Thelle FC v Dieppe
2′A goal for Dieppe on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–23–49
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Chambly Thelle FC 0–1 Dieppe
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 28% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Dieppe win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Chambly Thelle FC win 28%)
3′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–23–49
14′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
29′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
35′Dieppe score on 35′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–83
35′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–83
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Chambly Thelle FC 0–2 Dieppe
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 5% now
37′Chambly Thelle FC find the net on 37′. 1–2. 1–2 · 17–26–57
37′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–26–57
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Chambly Thelle FC 1–2 Dieppe
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 17% now
43′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–59
45′HALF-TIME Chambly Thelle FC 1–2 Dieppe
46′SECOND HALF Chambly Thelle FC 1–2 Dieppe
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
69′A goal for Chambly Thelle FC on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 26–60–14
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Chambly Thelle FC 2–2 Dieppe
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Dieppe win 14%)
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 25–61–14
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
91′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–2
97′Chambly Thelle FC score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Chambly Thelle FC 3–2 Dieppe
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Chambly Thelle FC win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Chambly Thelle FC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
98′We said Chambly Thelle FC at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Chambly Thelle FC 3–2 Dieppe
FTChambly Thelle FC 3–2 Dieppe · Chambly Thelle FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chambly Thelle FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chambly Thelle FC 51%, draw 28%, Dieppe 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Chambly Thelle FC v DieppeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chambly Thelle FC win51%

Draw28%

Dieppe win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chambly Thelle FC

Dieppe

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chambly thelle fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Chambly Thelle FC a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chambly Thelle FC v Dieppe~~1.60 – 0.93

~~Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chambly Thelle FC win	51%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Dieppe win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Chambly Thelle FC or draw	79%	–	–
Chambly Thelle FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
Dieppe clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.7 6.3 3.5 1 11.5 12.8 5.4 2 10.0 9.1 4.2 3 5.4 4.9 2.3 4 2.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chambly Thelle FC down, Dieppe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group A matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chambly Thelle FC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dieppe away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Chambly Thelle FC, 0.93 for Dieppe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 3–0 DIE · DIE 1–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

CHAMBLY THELLE FC

WWWLWL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

DIEPPE

DDWWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Furiani-Agliani	6	+10	14
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
3	Racing Colombes 92	6	+5	13
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	6	+3	12
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
6	Creteil	6	+3	11
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9
8	Biesheim	6	+4	8
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
11	Epinal	6	−1	5
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1