Bastia-Borgo v Colmar prediction · National 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Bastia-Borgo 3–0 Colmar BASTIA-BORGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bastia-Borgo win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bastia-Borgo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bastia-Borgo 44%, draw 29%, Colmar 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bastia-Borgo v ColmarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bastia-Borgo win44%

Draw29%

Colmar win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup A · matchday 7

VenueStade Paul-Antoniotti

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bastia-Borgo

Colmar

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · National 2 - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bastia-borgo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Bastia-Borgo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bastia-Borgo v Colmar~~1.44 – 1.07

~~Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bastia-Borgo win	44%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Colmar win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Bastia-Borgo or draw	73%	–	–
Bastia-Borgo clean sheet	35%	–	–
Colmar clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.9 7.5 4.7 1 10.4 13.5 6.5 2.4 2 8.3 8.7 4.6 3 4.1 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bastia-Borgo down, Colmar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 National 2 - Group A matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National 2 - Group A matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bastia-Borgo at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Colmar away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Bastia-Borgo, 1.07 for Colmar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 BAS · BAS 0–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National 2 - Group A this season · since 22 Aug

BASTIA-BORGO

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–3

COLMAR

LWDDLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Furiani-Agliani	6	+10	14
2	St Maur Lusitanos	6	+5	14
3	Racing Colombes 92	6	+5	13
4	Feignies-Aulnoye	6	+3	12
5	Chambly Thelle FC	6	+5	12
6	Creteil	6	+3	11
7	Dieppe	6	+1	9
8	Biesheim	6	+4	8
9	Haguenau	6	−3	6
10	Montlouis	6	−3	6
11	Epinal	6	−1	5
12	Le Pays du Valois	6	−2	5
13	Bastia-Borgo	6	−4	5
14	Colmar	6	−5	5
15	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	6	−3	3
16	Chantilly	6	−15	1