Villefranche v Cannes

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cannes win at 43%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cannes 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 27–30–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Villefranche v Cannes
4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Villefranche
5. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Cannes
6. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Villefranche
7. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cannes win 35%)
8. 41′Villefranche find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–24–11
9. 41′We said Cannes at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 65–24–11
10. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
11. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Villefranche 1–0 Cannes
12. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Cannes win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
13. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Villefranche win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
14. 45′HALF-TIME Villefranche 2–0 Cannes
15. 46′A goal for Villefranche on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
16. 46′We said Cannes at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
17. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Villefranche 2–0 Cannes
18. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Cannes win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
19. 46′SECOND HALF Villefranche 2–0 Cannes
20. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cannes · On: J. Lopez · Off: E. Caumont
21. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Villefranche · On: G. Fofana · Off: L. Etoga
22. 54′Cannes are down to ten from 21′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 93–6–1
23. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 21' S. Corchia · Cannes
24. 54′🟥 RED CARD · 21' S. Corchia · Cannes
25. 57′Cannes score on 56′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–22–6
26. 57′We said Cannes at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 71–22–6
27. 57′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 71–22–6
28. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Villefranche 2–1 Cannes
29. 61′Cannes score on 56′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 73–22–5
30. 62′Cannes are down to ten from 21′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 74–21–5
31. 62′We said Cannes at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–1 · 74–21–5
32. 62′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–21–5
33. 65′We said Cannes at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
34. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Villefranche
35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cannes · On: L. Hervieu · Off: C. Goncalves
36. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cannes · On: H. Abderrahmane · Off: M. Noc
37. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Villefranche · On: Y. Tade · Off: N. Sabihi
38. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Villefranche · On: J. Tiehi · Off: L. Piquionne
39. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Villefranche · On: K. Nagera · Off: M. Louzif
40. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cannes · On: C. Ndoye · Off: M. Die
41. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cannes · On: B. Oggad · Off: C. Makutungu
42. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Villefranche · On: D. Gassama · Off: M. Cachbach
43. FTFULL TIME Villefranche 2–1 Cannes
44. FTVillefranche 2–1 Cannes · Cannes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.