Versailles v Aubagne prediction · Ligue 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VersaillesDrawAubagne

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Versailles 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Versailles are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Versailles 49%, draw 28%, Aubagne 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Versailles v AubagneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Versailles win49%

Draw28%

Aubagne win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Versailles

Aubagne

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Versailles	10	+2	19
16	Aubagne	10	−7	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · versailles winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market60%

Us49%

~~Market~~60%

We make Versailles a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Versailles v Aubagne~~1.56 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 19 v 7~~3 v 16

~~The market · Versailles win~~60% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Versailles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Versailles win	49%	60%	−11
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Aubagne win	23%	16%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Versailles or draw	77%	84%	−7
Versailles clean sheet	36%	–	–
Aubagne clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.9 6.5 3.9 1 10.7 13.1 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.3 4.7 3 4.8 4.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Versailles down, Aubagne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,551 Ligue 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Versailles at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aubagne away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Versailles, 1.01 for Aubagne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VER 3–0 AUB · AUB 1–1 VER · VER 2–0 AUB · AUB 3–3 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 5 Sept

VERSAILLES

LWDWWW0–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

AUBAGNE

DLLWLL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	La Roche VF	10	+6	21
2	Rouen	10	+10	20
3	Versailles	10	+2	19
4	Caen	10	+6	18
5	Concarneau	10	+4	17
6	Le Puy Foot	10	+3	16
7	Amiens	10	+9	16
8	Cannes	10	+6	15
9	Fleury 91	10	+4	15
10	Gobelins	10	0	15
11	Quevilly	10	−3	13
12	Thionville Lusitanos	10	−1	12
13	Bastia	10	−4	12
14	Valenciennes	10	−5	9
15	Orleans	10	−5	9
16	Aubagne	10	−7	7
17	Villefranche	10	−14	7
18	Bourg-en-bresse 01	10	−11	5