Gobelins v Rouen

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rouen win at 42%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Rouen 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 26–32–42
3. 1′KICK-OFF Gobelins v Rouen
4. 27′Rouen are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 25–38–38
5. 27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Rouen
6. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Rouen win 36%)
7. 45′HALF-TIME Gobelins 0–0 Rouen
8. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Rouen win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Gobelins · On: A. Sidibe · Off: E. Soumah-Abbad
10. 46′SECOND HALF Gobelins 0–0 Rouen
11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rouen · On: E. Frebourg · Off: G. Egny
12. 50′Gobelins score on 49′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–7
13. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Gobelins 1–0 Rouen
14. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Rouen win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
15. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Gobelins win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
16. 51′We said Rouen at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 21–49–30 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
17. 51′We said Rouen at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 70–23–7
18. 51′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 70–23–7
19. 55′49′: M. Guendez on the scoresheet for Gobelins, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–6
20. 56′Rouen find the net on 55′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–53–28
21. 56′Rouen are down to ten from 24′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 19–53–28
22. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gobelins 1–1 Rouen
23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Rouen win: 42% at kick-off, 28% now
24. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Gobelins win 19%)
25. 57′We said Rouen at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 19–53–28
26. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Gobelins
27. 63′We said Rouen at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–58–24
28. 66′A goal for Gobelins on 66′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–19–3
29. 66′We said Rouen at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–1 · 77–19–3
30. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Gobelins 2–1 Rouen
31. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Rouen win: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
32. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Gobelins win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
33. 67′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–19–3
34. 69′Gobelins score on 69′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gobelins · On: I. Camara · Off: E. Michut
36. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Gobelins 3–1 Rouen
37. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Rouen win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
38. 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
39. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gobelins · On: A. Amara · Off: M. Guendez
40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rouen · On: A. Toure · Off: N. Mbemba
41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rouen · On: S. Traore · Off: I. Karamoko
42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rouen · On: J. Viana · Off: S. Diaby
43. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rouen · On: W. Pacius · Off: M. Tchokounte
44. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gobelins · On: S. Misiatu · Off: N. Donat
45. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gobelins · On: L. Marthe · Off: M. Adelaide
46. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Gobelins
47. FTFULL TIME Gobelins 3–1 Rouen
48. FTGobelins 3–1 Rouen · Rouen win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.