Caen v La Roche VF

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Caen win at 39%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Caen 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
3. 1′KICK-OFF Caen v La Roche VF
4. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Caen
5. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' La Roche VF
6. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Caen win 33%)
7. 43′La Roche VF find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
8. 43′We said Caen at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
9. 43′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
10. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Caen 0–1 La Roche VF
11. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Caen win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
12. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' La Roche VF win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
13. 45′We said Caen at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Caen win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
15. 45′HALF-TIME Caen 0–1 La Roche VF
16. 46′SECOND HALF Caen 0–1 La Roche VF
17. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Caen
18. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Caen · On: F. Bomo · Off: H. Saivet
19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Caen · On: K. Portut · Off: I. Botella
20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' La Roche VF · On: K. Bensoula · Off: M. Vrignon
21. 65′We said Caen at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' La Roche VF · On: D. Bangoura · Off: A. Araujo
23. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Caen · On: M. Hafid · Off: J. Kimboma
24. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Caen · On: M. Daffot · Off: A. Gnanduillet
25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Caen · On: I. Aissaoui · Off: Z. Bagbema
26. 84′A goal for Caen on 83′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 8–85–7
27. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' La Roche VF · On: E. Gassama · Off: J. Beaulieu
28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' La Roche VF · On: T. Renaudineau · Off: H. Lamy
29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Caen 1–1 La Roche VF
30. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was La Roche VF win 7%)
31. 88′Caen score on 88′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
32. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Caen 2–1 La Roche VF
33. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Caen win: 39% at kick-off, 95% now
34. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Caen win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
35. 89′We said Caen at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
36. 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 96–4–0
37. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Caen win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
38. FTFULL TIME Caen 2–1 La Roche VF
39. FTCaen 2–1 La Roche VF · Caen win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.