Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91 prediction · Ligue 3

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Fleury 91 FLEURY 91 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fleury 91 win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.475

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.433

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fleury 91 win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fleury 91 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 26–31–44
1′KICK-OFF Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Fleury 91
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Fleury 91
34′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Y. Verdier · Fleury 91
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Fleury 91 win 36%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Fleury 91 win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–0 Fleury 91
46′SECOND HALF Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–0 Fleury 91
50′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 21–46–32
57′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
63′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 18–57–26
66′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fleury 91 · On: N. Homssa · Off: V. Lavigne
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fleury 91 · On: M. Jean-Pierre · Off: C. Cisse
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Fleury 91 win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Fleury 91
73′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bourg-en-bresse 01 · On: Y. Abraou · Off: A. Krizoua
78′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–75–14
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Fleury 91 win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bourg-en-bresse 01 · On: T. Adoumbou · Off: A. Sabri
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fleury 91 · On: T. Thomas · Off: Y. Le Mehaute
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fleury 91 · On: S. Anne · Off: K. Farade
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fleury 91 · On: J. Rivas · Off: R. Leleve
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Bourg-en-bresse 01
90′We said Fleury 91 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Fleury 91 win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
91′Fleury 91 score on 90′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Fleury 91
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Fleury 91 win: 44% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Fleury 91 win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′We published Fleury 91 at 44%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Bourg-en-bresse 01
FTFULL TIME Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Fleury 91
FTBourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Fleury 91 · Fleury 91 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fleury 91 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bourg-en-bresse 01 26%, draw 30%, Fleury 91 44%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bourg-en-bresse 01 win26%

Draw30%

Fleury 91 win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade Marcel-Verchere

Line-ups

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Fleury 91

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Fleury 91

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Ligue 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fleury 91	9	+3	12
17	Bourg-en-bresse 01	9	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bourg-en-bresse 01

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Montfort

4 A. Dihad

5 Q. Lacour

29 N. Dede-Lhomme

25 A. Sabri

6 R. Souici

22 T. Gomes

18 Y. Kanoute

14 A. Krizoua

8 T. Frayssinous

28 A. Gharbi

Coach · Nicolas Rabuel

Substitutes

40 · P. Popp

35 · N. Kintuntu

7 · O. Muepu

11 · Y. Abraou

19 · M. Tyburn

34 · T. Adoumbou

33 · J. Domingos

Fleury 91

Formation not confirmed

40 G. Alette

27 H. Gassama

2 F. Colombo

26 H. Karamoko

18 C. Cisse

20 C. Khetir

8 R. Leleve

10 Y. Le Mehaute

19 K. Farade

7 Y. Verdier

17 V. Lavigne

Coach · Maxime D'Ornano

Substitutes

1 · A. Petit

25 · M. Jean-Pierre

6 · G. Lefebvre

12 · T. Thomas

28 · N. Homssa

11 · J. Rivas

9 · S. Anne

Our number · fleury 91 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Fleury 91 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Fleury 91~~0.96 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~17 v 10

~~The market · Fleury 91 win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fleury 91 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bourg-en-bresse 01 win	26%	26%	0
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Fleury 91 win	44%	46%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Bourg-en-bresse 01 or draw	56%	54%	+2
Bourg-en-bresse 01 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Fleury 91 clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.6 12.2 8.9 4.0 1 8.5 14.1 8.5 3.8 2 4.7 6.1 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bourg-en-bresse 01 down, Fleury 91 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,543 Ligue 3 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bourg-en-bresse 01 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fleury 91 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01, 1.33 for Fleury 91. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FLE 3–0 BOU · BOU 2–2 FLE · BOU 0–4 FLE · FLE 0–1 BOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 29 Aug

BOURG-EN-BRESSE 01

LLLDDL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

FLEURY 91

LWWDLW1–2 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	La Roche VF	10	+6	21
2	Rouen	9	+12	20
3	Caen	10	+6	18
4	Concarneau	9	+4	16
5	Versailles	9	+1	16
6	Amiens	9	+9	15
7	Cannes	9	+7	15
8	Le Puy Foot	9	+2	13
9	Thionville Lusitanos	9	0	12
10	Fleury 91	9	+3	12
11	Gobelins	9	−2	12
12	Bastia	9	−4	11
13	Quevilly	9	−4	10
14	Orleans	9	−4	9
15	Valenciennes	9	−5	8
16	Aubagne	9	−6	7
17	Bourg-en-bresse 01	9	−10	5
18	Villefranche	9	−15	4