Amiens v Thionville Lusitanos prediction · Ligue 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AmiensDrawThionville Lusitanos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Amiens 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Amiens are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amiens 47%, draw 29%, Thionville Lusitanos 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Amiens v Thionville LusitanosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Amiens win47%

Draw29%

Thionville Lusitanos win25%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade de la Licorne

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amiens

Thionville Lusitanos

12Days since last match12

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Amiens	10	+9	16
12	Thionville Lusitanos	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amiens winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Amiens a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amiens v Thionville Lusitanos~~1.47 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~7 v 12

~~The market · Amiens win~~52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Amiens win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amiens win	47%	52%	−5
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Thionville Lusitanos win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Amiens or draw	75%	78%	−3
Amiens clean sheet	37%	–	–
Thionville Lusitanos clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.7 7.2 4.3 1 11.1 13.5 6.2 2.1 2 9.1 9.0 4.5 3 4.5 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amiens down, Thionville Lusitanos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,551 Ligue 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Amiens at home: 2.00 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Thionville Lusitanos away: 1.60 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Amiens, 1.01 for Thionville Lusitanos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 3 this season · since 5 Sept

AMIENS

WDWDWD3–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

THIONVILLE LUSITANOS

DLDLLL2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	La Roche VF	10	+6	21
2	Rouen	10	+10	20
3	Versailles	10	+2	19
4	Caen	10	+6	18
5	Concarneau	10	+4	17
6	Le Puy Foot	10	+3	16
7	Amiens	10	+9	16
8	Cannes	10	+6	15
9	Fleury 91	10	+4	15
10	Gobelins	10	0	15
11	Quevilly	10	−3	13
12	Thionville Lusitanos	10	−1	12
13	Bastia	10	−4	12
14	Valenciennes	10	−5	9
15	Orleans	10	−5	9
16	Aubagne	10	−7	7
17	Villefranche	10	−14	7
18	Bourg-en-bresse 01	10	−11	5