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Sochaux v Boulogne

Sochaux

1–1Full time

Boulogne

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Stade Bonal

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Sochaux 1–1 Boulogne SOCHAUX WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sochaux win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.776

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sochaux win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sochaux 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF Sochaux v Boulogne
7′A goal for Sochaux on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sochaux 1–0 Boulogne
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Sochaux win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Sochaux 1–0 Boulogne
8′We said Sochaux at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Julien Masson · Sochaux
41′We said Sochaux at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′SECOND HALF Sochaux 1–0 Boulogne
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Demba Thiam · Boulogne
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Boulogne · On: Benjamin Besic · Off: Mohamed Soumah Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Boulogne · On: Aurelien Platret · Off: Noah Fatar Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sochaux · On: Mathis Clairicia · Off: Kapitbafan Djoco Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sochaux · On: Samy Baghdadi · Off: Yohan Demoncy Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sochaux · On: Samy Baghdadi · Off: Yohan Demoncy Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sochaux 1–1 Boulogne · Benjamin Gomel
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sochaux 1–1 Boulogne · Abdel Hbouch
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sochaux · On: Saad Agouzoul · Off: Arthur Vitelli Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sochaux · On: Boubacar Fofana · Off: Benjamin Gomel Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Boulogne · On: Martin Lecolier · Off: Abdel Hbouch Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Boulogne · On: Theo Epailly · Off: Joffrey Bultel Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Boulogne · On: Sonny Duflos · Off: Nolan Binet Corrected
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Adrien Pinot · Boulogne
FTFULL TIME Sochaux 1–1 Boulogne
FTSochaux 1–1 Boulogne · Sochaux win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sochaux win47%

Draw29%

Boulogne win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade Bonal

Referee · Mickael Leleu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

40 M. Jeannin

26 E. N'Gatta

4 A. Vitelli

14 M. Peybernes

3 D. Gomis

21 B. Diawara

23 J. Masson

77 L. Nomel

24 Y. Demoncy

7 B. Gomel

9 K. Djoco

Coach · Vincent Hognon

Substitutes

30 · A. Pierre

97 · S. Agouzoul

42 · D. Tavares

15 · J. Mexique

25 · P. Diop

5 · S. Baghdadi

11 · L. Deedson

91 · M. Clairicia

10 · B. Fofana

Boulogne

3-1-4-2

99 B. Noukeu

18 D. Thiam

25 A. Kerriou

15 A. Pinot

8 J. Martin

11 N. Fatar

14 J. Bultel

19 N. Binet

12 J. Boyer

10 A. Hbouch

36 M. Soumah

Coach · Fabien Dagneaux

Substitutes

1 · X. Lenogue

20 · T. Brusco

26 · O. Lenne

22 · S. Duflos

21 · A. Platret

17 · B. Besic

7 · A. Nassiri

64 · T. Epailly

9 · M. Lecolier

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

40 M. Jeannin

26 E. N'Gatta

4 A. Vitelli

14 M. Peybernes

3 D. Gomis

21 B. Diawara

23 J. Masson

77 L. Nomel

24 Y. Demoncy

7 B. Gomel

9 K. Djoco

Coach · Vincent Hognon

Substitutes

30 · A. Pierre

97 · S. Agouzoul

42 · D. Tavares

15 · J. Mexique

25 · P. Diop

5 · S. Baghdadi

11 · L. Deedson

91 · M. Clairicia

10 · B. Fofana

Boulogne

3-1-4-2

99 B. Noukeu

18 D. Thiam

25 A. Kerriou

15 A. Pinot

8 J. Martin

11 N. Fatar

14 J. Bultel

19 N. Binet

12 J. Boyer

10 A. Hbouch

36 M. Soumah

Coach · Fabien Dagneaux

Substitutes

1 · X. Lenogue

20 · T. Brusco

26 · O. Lenne

22 · S. Duflos

21 · A. Platret

17 · B. Besic

7 · A. Nassiri

64 · T. Epailly

9 · M. Lecolier

Our number · sochaux winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Sochaux a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sochaux win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sochaux win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Boulogne win	24%	31%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	35%	40%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Sochaux or draw	76%	69%	+7
Sochaux clean sheet	45%	–	–
Boulogne clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.9 10.0 4.1 1 15.6 12.8 5.1 2 10.0 8.0 3.2 3 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sochaux down, Boulogne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,827 Ligue 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sochaux at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Boulogne away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Sochaux, 0.81 for Boulogne. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Ligue 2

SOCHAUX

DWDDWD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

BOULOGNE

LDDDDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
3	Reims	7	+6	13
4	Montpellier	7	+1	12
5	Metz	7	+3	10
6	Nancy	7	+1	10
7	Annecy	7	0	10
8	Sochaux	7	−1	10
9	Dijon	7	0	9
10	PAU	7	0	8
11	Dunkerque	7	−2	8
12	Guingamp	7	−2	8
13	Grenoble	7	−3	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
17	Boulogne	7	−2	5
18	Laval	7	−6	5