Sochaux v Annecy prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Sochaux 1–3 Annecy SOCHAUX WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sochaux win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.713

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sochaux win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sochaux 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Sochaux v Annecy
14′We said Sochaux at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
14′A goal for Annecy on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sochaux 0–1 Annecy
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Sochaux win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Annecy win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Sochaux win 38%)
19′We said Sochaux at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Sochaux · On: Mathis Clairicia · Off: Kapitbafan Djoco
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sochaux win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
42′We said Sochaux at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
45′SECOND HALF Sochaux 0–1 Annecy
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45+1' Sochaux · On: Élie N'Gatta · Off: Arthur Vitelli
47′We said Sochaux at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
47′47′: Moïse Sahi on the scoresheet for Annecy, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sochaux 0–2 Annecy
52′HALF-TIME Sochaux 0–1 Annecy
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sochaux · On: Boubacar Fofana · Off: Louicius Deedson
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sochaux · On: Honoré Bayanginisa · Off: Yohan Demoncy
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sochaux · On: Noa Kotto Kotto Mouyema · Off: Saad Agouzoul
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–19–77
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Sochaux win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Sochaux 1–2 Annecy
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sochaux win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
66′Sochaux pull one back on 65′ through Honoré Bayanginisa. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–19–78
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Boubacar Fofana · Sochaux
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–97
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sochaux 1–3 Annecy
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sochaux win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
69′Thibault Rambaud scores for Annecy on 68′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
71′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Annecy · On: Pascal Mozie · Off: Antoine Larose
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Annecy · On: Kilyan Veniere · Off: Clement Billemaz
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sochaux 1–4 Annecy
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Annecy
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Élie N'Gatta · Sochaux
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Annecy · On: Zepiqueno Redmond · Off: Moïse Sahi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Annecy · On: Souleymane Fofana · Off: Thibault Rambaud
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Annecy · On: Paul Venot · Off: Alexis Casadei
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sochaux · On: Landry Nomel · Off: Mathis Clairicia
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Annecy · On: Esteban Marre · Off: Gabin Secrétant
FTFULL TIME Sochaux 1–3 Annecy
FTSochaux 1–3 Annecy · Sochaux win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sochaux are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sochaux 40%, draw 28%, Annecy 31%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sochaux v AnnecyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sochaux win40%

Draw28%

Annecy win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade Bonal

RefereeFaouzi Benchabane

Line-ups

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

Annecy

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sochaux

Annecy

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Annecy	9	0	13
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sochaux

4-2-3-1

40 M. Jeannin

4 A. Vitelli

14 M. Peybernes

97 S. Agouzoul

42 Dylan Tavares

15 J. Mexique

23 J. Masson

11 L. Deedson

24 Y. Demoncy

7 B. Gomel

9 K. Djoco

Coach · Vincent Hognon

Substitutes

91 · M. Clairicia

5 · S. Baghdadi

8 · Honoré Bayanginisa

10 · B. Fofana

3 · D. Gomis

44 · N. K. Mouyema

26 · E. N'Gatta

77 · L. Nomel

30 · A. Pierre

Annecy

4-2-3-1

1 F. Escales

41 T. Delphis

33 Gabin Secrétant

26 A. Do Marcolino

27 J. Kouadio

14 M. Koné

8 A. Casadei

28 A. Larose

80 M. Sahi

22 C. Billemaz

9 T. Rambaud

Coach · L. Guyot

Substitutes

16 · T. Callens

11 · Souleymane Fofana

21 · E. Marre

15 · P. Mozie

32 · D. Oduro

17 · Z. Redmond

19 · K. Veniere

25 · P. Venot

Our number · sochaux winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Sochaux a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sochaux v Annecy~~1.25 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~11 v 8

~~The market · Sochaux win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sochaux win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sochaux win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Annecy win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	25%	−5
Sochaux or draw	69%	68%	+1
Sochaux clean sheet	35%	–	–
Annecy clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 10.5 5.7 2.0 1 12.3 13.1 6.9 2.5 2 7.7 8.0 4.2 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sochaux down, Annecy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,845 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sochaux at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Annecy away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Sochaux, 1.06 for Annecy. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOC 5–1 ANN · ANN 2–1 SOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

SOCHAUX

DDWDDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

ANNECY

DWLLWL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Montpellier	9	+6	18
3	Reims	9	+8	17
4	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
5	Nancy	9	+3	16
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Metz	9	+2	13
8	Annecy	9	0	13
9	Dijon	9	0	12
10	Dunkerque	9	−2	11
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11
12	Boulogne	9	0	9
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	9	−5	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	9	−7	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6