Home › Football › Ligue 2 › Saint Etienne v Rodez

Saint Etienne v Rodez

Saint Etienne

2–0Full time

Rodez

Ligue 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Saint Etienne 2–0 Rodez SAINT ETIENNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saint Etienne win~~55%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.299

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saint Etienne win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Saint Etienne was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Saint Etienne v Rodez
7′Much as we predicted: Saint Etienne was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Saint Etienne 1–0 Rodez
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' Saint Etienne 1–0 Rodez
16′15′ and it is 1–0: Thierno Ballo on the scoresheet for Saint Etienne. 1–0 · 77–15–8
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
18′15′ and it is 1–0: Thierno Ballo on the scoresheet for Saint Etienne. 1–0 · 77–15–8
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 55% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
21′We published Saint Etienne at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
26′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Rodez · On: Ryan Ponti · Off: Luzolo Vangi Corrected
28′We published Saint Etienne at 55%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jordan Mendes · Rodez
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Saint Etienne 1–0 Rodez
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Saint Etienne win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Mathis Saka · Rodez
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Saint Etienne 2–0 Rodez · Thierno Ballo
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Saint Etienne 2–0 Rodez · Augustine Boakye
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Áron Csongvai · Saint Etienne
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rodez · On: Mathis Touho · Off: Nachon Nsingi Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rodez · On: Kelian Nsona · Off: Steven Luyambula Biwa Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Saint Etienne · On: Joshua Duffus · Off: Irvin Cardona Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Saint Etienne · On: Adam Baallal · Off: Jakob Breum Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rodez · On: Marco Essimi · Off: Mathis Saka Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rodez · On: Octave Joly · Off: Kenny Nagera Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Saint Etienne · On: elyes dhaoui · Off: Augustine Boakye Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Saint Etienne · On: Nathan Kasia Nkondo · Off: Ben Old Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' I. Cathro · Saint Etienne
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Saint Etienne · On: Mamour Ndiaye · Off: Gautier Larsonneur Corrected
FTFULL TIME Saint Etienne 2–0 Rodez
FTSaint Etienne 2–0 Rodez · Saint Etienne win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Saint Etienne win55%

Draw22%

Rodez win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Referee · Pierre Gaillouste

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Saint Etienne

Formation not confirmed

30 G. Larsonneur

13 J. Ferreira

23 K. Pedro

18 S. Nair

11 B. Old

6 M. Bernauer

14 A. Csongvai

20 A. Boakye

10 J. Breum

8 T. Ballo

7 I. Cardona

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Ndiaye

40 · L. Lavallee

52 · T. Teillol

37 · N. Kasia

16 · T. Svetlin

32 · A. Baallal

31 · N. El Jamali

46 · E. Dhaoui

17 · J. Duffus

Rodez

5-3-2

1 Q. Braat

28 S. Luyambula

24 L. Laurent

4 M. Magnin

17 D. Vangi

3 R. Lipinski

10 M. Saka

6 J. Mendes

29 A. Cartillier

9 N. Nsingi

7 K. Nagera

Coach · Didier Santini

Substitutes

30 · E. Crombez

15 · E. Jean-Lambert

5 · M. Sylla

8 · D. Pavlovic

22 · O. Joly

20 · R. Ponti

21 · K. Nsona

27 · M. Essimi

11 · M. Touho

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Saint Etienne

Formation not confirmed

30 G. Larsonneur

13 J. Ferreira

23 K. Pedro

18 S. Nair

11 B. Old

6 M. Bernauer

14 A. Csongvai

20 A. Boakye

10 J. Breum

8 T. Ballo

7 I. Cardona

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Ndiaye

40 · L. Lavallee

52 · T. Teillol

37 · N. Kasia

16 · T. Svetlin

32 · A. Baallal

31 · N. El Jamali

46 · E. Dhaoui

17 · J. Duffus

Rodez

5-3-2

1 Q. Braat

28 S. Luyambula

24 L. Laurent

4 M. Magnin

17 D. Vangi

3 R. Lipinski

10 M. Saka

6 J. Mendes

29 A. Cartillier

9 N. Nsingi

7 K. Nagera

Coach · Didier Santini

Substitutes

30 · E. Crombez

15 · E. Jean-Lambert

5 · M. Sylla

8 · D. Pavlovic

22 · O. Joly

20 · R. Ponti

21 · K. Nsona

27 · M. Essimi

11 · M. Touho

Our number · saint etienne winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

55% The market69%

Us55%

~~Market~~69%

We make Saint Etienne a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · saint etienne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saint Etienne win	55%	69%	−14
Draw	22%	18%	+3
Rodez win	23%	12%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	57%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Saint Etienne or draw	77%	88%	−10
Saint Etienne clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rodez clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 5.0 3.0 1 8.3 9.9 5.9 2.4 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.4 6.3 3.8 4 2.7 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saint Etienne down, Rodez across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,832 Ligue 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saint Etienne at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rodez away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Saint Etienne, 1.19 for Rodez. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAI 0–0 ROD · ROD 2–1 SAI · SAI 4–0 ROD · SAI 2–0 ROD

Form · last six in Ligue 2

SAINT ETIENNE

WWWWLD3–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

RODEZ

LWDLLL0–2 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	Montpellier	8	+3	15
3	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
4	Reims	7	+6	13
5	Nancy	8	+2	13
6	Annecy	8	+1	13
7	PAU	8	+1	11
8	Sochaux	8	−1	11
9	Metz	7	+3	10
10	Dijon	7	0	9
11	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
12	Guingamp	8	−3	8
13	Grenoble	8	−5	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6
17	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
18	Laval	8	−7	5