Rodez v Montpellier prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Rodez 0–3 Montpellier RODEZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodez win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.640

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rodez win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rodez 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
1′KICK-OFF Rodez v Montpellier
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Rodez win 34%)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Mathis Saka · Rodez
45′HALF-TIME Rodez 0–0 Montpellier
45′SECOND HALF Rodez 0–0 Montpellier
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou · Montpellier
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Rodez win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–42–28
55′We said Rodez at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–21–73
55′55′: Nicolas Pays on the scoresheet for Montpellier, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–73
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Rodez 0–1 Montpellier
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Rodez win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Montpellier win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 48%)
58′We said Rodez at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Montpellier · On: Daryll Benlahlou · Off: Noah Vidal
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Rodez 0–2 Montpellier
60′Montpellier ahead on 59′ through Laciné Megnan Pave. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
61′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rodez · On: Damjan Pavlović · Off: Octave Joly
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rodez · On: Jean Lambert Evan's · Off: Steven Luyambula Biwa Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rodez · On: Antonin Cartillier · Off: Mathis Saka
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rodez · On: Kenny Nagera · Off: Mathis Touho
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Montpellier · On: Yanis Zouaoui · Off: Theo Sainte Luce
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rodez 0–3 Montpellier
77′Daryll Benlahlou scores for Montpellier on 76′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rodez · On: Kelian Nsona · Off: Nachon Nsingi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Montpellier · On: Théo Chennahi · Off: Laciné Megnan Pave
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Montpellier · On: Hichem Abderrebi · Off: Florian Tardieu
FTFULL TIME Rodez 0–3 Montpellier
FTRodez 0–3 Montpellier · Rodez win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rodez just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodez 38%, draw 28%, Montpellier 35%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rodez v MontpellierBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Rodez win38%

Draw28%

Montpellier win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Paul Lignon

RefereeGeoffrey Kubler

Line-ups

Rodez

5-3-2

Montpellier

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodez

Montpellier

9Days since last match10

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 9 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Montpellier	8	+3	15
17	Rodez	8	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rodez

5-3-2

1 Q. Braat

28 S. Luyambula Biwa

24 L. Quenabio

4 M. Magnin

3 R. Lipinski

20 R. Ponti

10 M. Saka

6 J. Mendes

22 O. Joly

9 N. Nsingi

11 M. Touho

Coach · D. Santini

Substitutes

21 · K. Nsona

8 · D. Pavlović

29 · Antonin Cartillier

30 · E. Crombez

13 · C. Roubiou

15 · E. Jean-Lambert

7 · K. Nagera

5 · M. Sylla

Montpellier

4-2-3-1

31 S. Ngapandouetnbu

3 Naoufel El Hannach

15 J. Laporte

6 Y. Mouanga

17 T. Sainte-Luce

5 F. Tardieu

27 D. Meddah

18 N. Pays

40 N. Vidal-Cartoux

9 Lacine Megnan-Pave

11 M. Camara

Coach · Z. Camara

Substitutes

28 · Y. Zouaoui

77 · Everson

1 · M. Michel

44 · T. Chennahi

23 · Daryll Benlahlou

90 · Gregory Ayem

32 · Hichem Abderrebi

Our number · rodez winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Rodez a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodez v Montpellier~~1.25 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~17 v 5

~~The market · Rodez win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rodez win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodez win	38%	33%	+5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Montpellier win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	59%	−15
Both teams to score	50%	63%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	70%	81%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	23%	39%	−16
Rodez or draw	65%	60%	+5
Rodez clean sheet	30%	–	–
Montpellier clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.9 10.3 6.2 2.5 1 10.7 12.9 7.6 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 2.8 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodez down, Montpellier across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,844 Ligue 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodez at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Montpellier away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Rodez, 1.20 for Montpellier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROD 1–0 MON · MON 2–0 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug

RODEZ

WDLLLL5–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–2

MONTPELLIER

WDLWDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Reims	9	+8	17
3	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
4	Nancy	9	+3	16
5	Montpellier	8	+3	15
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Metz	9	+2	13
8	Annecy	9	0	13
9	Dijon	9	0	12
10	Dunkerque	9	−2	11
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11
12	Boulogne	9	0	9
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	9	−5	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	8	−4	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6