Rodez v Dunkerque prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RodezDrawDunkerque

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rodez 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodez are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodez 44%, draw 24%, Dunkerque 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Rodez v DunkerqueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rodez win44%

Draw24%

Dunkerque win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Paul-Lignon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodez

Dunkerque

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
13	Rodez	10	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodez winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Rodez a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodez v Dunkerque~~1.64 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~13 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodez win	44%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Dunkerque win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Rodez or draw	69%	–	–
Rodez clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dunkerque clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.3 6.8 4.6 2.1 1 8.3 11.2 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodez down, Dunkerque across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,852 Ligue 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodez at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dunkerque away: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Rodez, 1.34 for Dunkerque. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–1 ROD · ROD 1–1 DUN · ROD 5–1 DUN · DUN 1–0 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept

RODEZ

LLLLLW1–4 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

DUNKERQUE

DWLLWD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	10	+15	25
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	10	−6	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6