Reims v Dijon prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Reims 4–2 Dijon REIMS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reims win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.362

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reims win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Reims v Dijon
2′Much as we predicted: Reims was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
7′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Dijon · On: W. Diouf · Off: Ben-Chayeel Hamada
12′We said Reims at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–24–51
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Reims 0–1 Dijon
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Reims win: 51% at kick-off, 25% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Dijon win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Reims win 25%)
13′Adel Lembezat scores for Dijon on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–25–51
13′We said Reims at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Reims 1–1 Dijon
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Reims win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Reims win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Dijon win 24%)
21′21′: Yaya Fofana on the scoresheet for Reims, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–28–24
21′We published Reims at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–16–8
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Reims 2–1 Dijon
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Reims win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
22′Reims ahead on 22′ through Mohammed Daramy. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–17–8
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 76–17–7
35′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Reims · On: Arone Gadou · Off: Mohammed Daramy
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' W. Diouf · Dijon
36′We published Reims at 51%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
36′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 94–5–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Reims 3–1 Dijon
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Reims win: 51% at kick-off, 94% now
37′Daouda Guindo scores for Reims on 36′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
44′We published Reims at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dijon · On: Brandon Nsimba Ndezi · Off: H. Vargas Ríos
48′SECOND HALF Reims 3–1 Dijon
49′HALF-TIME Reims 3–1 Dijon
53′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Reims 4–1 Dijon
55′54′: Arone Gadou on the scoresheet for Reims, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–0–0
57′We published Reims at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dijon · On: Moussa Faty · Off: Boubacar Diallo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dijon · On: Samy Chouchane · Off: Jordan Marié
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Reims · On: Tidiane Diarrassouba · Off: seydou dembele
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Reims · On: Sambou Soumano · Off: Youssef el Kachati
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Reims · On: John Patrick · Off: Chamsedin Kouranfal
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Reims · On: John Otomewo · Off: Theo Leoni
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dijon · On: Yanis Barka · Off: Júlio Tavares
85′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Reims 4–2 Dijon
87′Dijon pull one back on 85′ through Yanis Barka. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Reims 4–2 Dijon
FTReims 4–2 Dijon · Reims win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reims are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Reims 51%, draw 24%, Dijon 25%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Reims v DijonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Reims win51%

Draw24%

Dijon win25%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Auguste-Delaune

RefereeEddy Rosier

Line-ups

Reims

4-1-4-1

Dijon

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Reims

Dijon

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 12 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Reims	8	+6	14
7	Dijon	8	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Reims

4-1-4-1

1 T. Hulsmann

21 J. Mambuku

28 Elie

22 S. Kotto

27 D. Guindo

6 T. Leoni

46 S. Dembele

8 Y. Fofana

61 C. Kouranfal

9 M. Daramy

10 Y. El Kachati

Coach · Nicolas Usai

Substitutes

12 · E. Omeragic

18 · S. Akieme

63 · A. Zohouri

30 · J. Patrick

5 · J. Otomewo

7 · T. Diarrassouba

99 · S. Soumano

77 · Q. Paris

19 · A. Gadou

Dijon

4-1-3-2

16 P. Delecroix

7 B. Hamada

23 L. Lacroix

5 Q. Bernard

75 B. Diallo

14 J. Marie

8 P. Bellon

17 A. Lembezat

20 H. Vargas-Rios

90 E. Lago

11 J. Tavares

Coach · Baptiste Ridira

Substitutes

71 · E. Ketterle

31 · M. Faty

6 · W. Diouf

22 · T. Meynadier

18 · B. Ndezi

21 · S. Chouchane

29 · A. Ntamack

10 · Y. Barka

9 · T. Dong

Our number · reims winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Reims a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Reims v Dijon~~1.70 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~4 v 7

~~The market · Reims win~~53% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reims win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reims win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	24%	24%	0
Dijon win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	37%	−6
Reims or draw	75%	77%	−2
Reims clean sheet	33%	–	–
Dijon clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.4 6.6 3.8 1 10.2 11.3 6.2 2.3 2 8.7 9.4 5.2 3 4.9 5.4 3.0 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reims down, Dijon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,836 Ligue 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Reims at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dijon away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Reims, 1.11 for Dijon. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug

REIMS

WWDWDD3–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

DIJON

DLDWWW1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	8	+13	19
2	RED Star FC 93	8	+3	17
3	Montpellier	8	+3	15
4	Reims	8	+6	14
5	Nancy	8	+2	13
6	Annecy	8	+1	13
7	Dijon	8	+2	12
8	PAU	8	+1	11
9	Sochaux	8	−1	11
10	Metz	8	+1	10
11	Guingamp	8	−3	8
12	Dunkerque	8	−3	8
13	Nantes	8	−4	8
14	Grenoble	8	−5	8
15	Rodez	8	−4	7
16	Boulogne	8	−2	6
17	Clermont Foot	8	−3	6
18	Laval	8	−7	5