RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne SAINT ETIENNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saint Etienne win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.492

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saint Etienne win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Saint Etienne 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 31–25–43
1′KICK-OFF RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne
14′A goal for Saint Etienne on 13′. 0–0 · 30–28–42
14′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 12–19–70
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne · Irvin Cardona
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Saint Etienne win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Saint Etienne · On: João Ferreira · Off: Julien Le Cardinal
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' João Ferreira · Saint Etienne
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Jovany Ikanga A Ngele · RED Star FC 93
45′SECOND HALF RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne
46′HALF-TIME RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Saint Etienne win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Ben Old · Saint Etienne
52′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Saint Etienne · On: Zuriko Davitashvili · Off: Irvin Cardona
66′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' RED Star FC 93 · On: Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Off: Matthieu Huard
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' RED Star FC 93 · On: Theo Magnin · Off: Jovany Ikanga A Ngele
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Saint Etienne · On: Mahmoud Jaber · Off: Ben Old
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Saint Etienne · On: Joshua Duffus · Off: Thierno Ballo
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Saint Etienne win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' RED Star FC 93 · On: Ilija Despotovic · Off: Godson Kyeremeh
81′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' RED Star FC 93 · On: Leonardo Daniel Ulineia Buta · Off: Elyaz Zidane
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' RED Star FC 93 · On: Idrissa Sabaly · Off: Kémo Cissé
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Saint Etienne win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Saint Etienne at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne
FTRED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne · Saint Etienne win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saint Etienne are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RED Star FC 93 31%, draw 25%, Saint Etienne 44%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on RED Star FC 93 v Saint EtienneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

RED Star FC 93 win31%

Draw25%

Saint Etienne win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade de Paris

RefereeAntoine Valnet

Line-ups

RED Star FC 93

4-2-3-1

Saint Etienne

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RED Star FC 93

Saint Etienne

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RED Star FC 93

4-2-3-1

16 G. Poussin

20 D. Durivaux

5 J. Escartin

4 E. Zidane

3 M. Huard

17 S. Renel

19 I. Halifa

27 G. Kyeremeh

11 K. Cisse

7 D. Durand

23 J. Ikanga

Coach · Damien Perrinelle

Substitutes

1 · Y. Benchaouch

80 · C. Bianay Balcot

6 · B. Danger

25 · L. Buta

2 · T. Magnin

10 · S. Khaoui

21 · I. Sabaly

45 · C. Konate

9 · I. Despotovic

Saint Etienne

4-2-3-1

1 M. Ndiaye

23 K. Pedro

26 J. Le Cardinal

18 S. Nair

11 B. Old

6 M. Bernauer

14 A. Csongvai

20 A. Boakye

10 J. Breum

8 T. Ballo

7 I. Cardona

Coach · Ian Cathro

Substitutes

40 · L. Lavallee

13 · J. Ferreira

37 · N. Kasia

5 · M. Jaber

32 · A. Baallal

31 · N. El Jamali

46 · E. Dhaoui

17 · J. Duffus

22 · Z. Davitashvili

Our number · saint etienne winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Saint Etienne a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RED Star FC 93 v Saint Etienne~~1.26 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~3 v 1

~~The market · Saint Etienne win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Saint Etienne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RED Star FC 93 win	31%	30%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Saint Etienne win	44%	43%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
RED Star FC 93 or draw	56%	57%	−1
RED Star FC 93 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Saint Etienne clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.5 9.3 7.2 3.7 1 7.6 11.9 8.9 4.6 2 4.9 7.3 5.6 2.9 3 2.1 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RED Star FC 93 down, Saint Etienne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,841 Ligue 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Saint Etienne away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for RED Star FC 93, 1.53 for Saint Etienne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAI 2–0 RED · RED 2–1 SAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 21 Aug

RED STAR FC 93

DLWWWW1–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–2

SAINT ETIENNE

WWWLDW4–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	8	+13	19
2	Reims	9	+8	17
3	RED Star FC 93	8	+3	17
4	Nancy	9	+3	16
5	Montpellier	8	+3	15
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Metz	9	+2	13
8	Annecy	9	0	13
9	Dijon	9	0	12
10	Dunkerque	9	−2	11
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11
12	Boulogne	9	0	9
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	9	−5	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	8	−4	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6