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PAU v Laval

PAU

3–2Full time

Laval

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Nouste Camp

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

PAU 3–2 Laval PAU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PAU win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.493

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PAU win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: PAU was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF PAU v Laval
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' PAU 1–0 Laval
18′PAU find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–11
18′We published PAU at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–19–11
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' PAU win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 19' PAU 1–0 Laval
20′PAU ahead on 18′ through Anthony Briançon. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' PAU 1–1 Laval · Anthony Briançon
21′Mathys Houdayer scores for Laval on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–30–30
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' PAU win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' PAU 1–1 Laval · Mathys Houdayer
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Axel Bamba · PAU
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Alessio Beaudouin · Laval
41′SUBSTITUTION · 42' PAU · On: Lorenzo Rajot · Off: Jessy Benet Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' PAU · On: Mathys Tourraine · Off: Abdel Hakim Abdallah Corrected
45′SECOND HALF PAU 1–1 Laval
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' PAU · On: Jeremy Sebas · Off: Tom Saettel Corrected
49′SECOND HALF PAU 1–1 Laval
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' PAU 2–1 Laval · Mathys Houdayer
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' PAU 2–1 Laval · Babacar Leye
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Hacene Benali · PAU
59′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laval · On: Trevis Dago · Off: Ethan Clavreul Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laval · On: Amine Moussaoui · Off: Jules Gaudin Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Laval · On: C. Gourichy · Off: Aboubakary Kante Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' PAU · On: Rony Ulrich Jordan·Mimb Baheng · Off: Anthony Briançon Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Mathys Houdayer · Laval
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' PAU 3–1 Laval · Babacar Leye
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' PAU 3–1 Laval · Hacene Benali
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PAU · On: Souleymane Basse · Off: Axel Bamba Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Laval · On: Cyril Mandouki · Off: Sam Sanna Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Laval · On: Julien Maggiotti · Off: Alessio Beaudouin Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' PAU 3–2 Laval · Hacene Benali
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' PAU 3–2 Laval · Trevis Dago
95′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Laval
97′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Julien Maggiotti · Laval
FTFULL TIME PAU 3–2 Laval
FTPAU 3–2 Laval · PAU win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PAU win43%

Draw26%

Laval win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Nouste Camp

Referee · Karim Abed

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

PAU

5-3-2

1 B. Maubleu

2 T. Pouilly

29 G. Paquiez

23 A. Briancon

88 A. Bamba

97 A. Abdallah

6 C. Fall

21 J. Benet

19 T. Saettel

7 H. Benali

9 B. Leye

Coach · Thierry Debes

Substitutes

30 · E. Salles

39 · M. Tourraine

8 · S. Basse

22 · R. Mimb Baheng

27 · L. Gadegbeku

5 · L. Rajot

10 · B. Brahimi

56 · A. Mbaye

18 · J. Sebas

Laval

4-3-1-2

1 M. Hautbois

23 E. Mouton

24 S. Bane

18 A. Lo

35 L. Samb

6 S. Sanna

21 A. Beaudouin

22 J. Gaudin

31 M. Houdayer

28 A. Kante

20 E. Clavreul

Coach · David Vignes

Substitutes

40 · L. Droyaux

3 · W. Bianda

29 · M. Sidibe

14 · C. Mandouki

5 · J. Maggiotti

7 · C. Gourichy

33 · S. Mellier

11 · T. Dago

34 · A. Moussaoui

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PAU

5-3-2

1 B. Maubleu

2 T. Pouilly

29 G. Paquiez

23 A. Briancon

88 A. Bamba

97 A. Abdallah

6 C. Fall

21 J. Benet

19 T. Saettel

7 H. Benali

9 B. Leye

Coach · Thierry Debes

Substitutes

30 · E. Salles

39 · M. Tourraine

8 · S. Basse

22 · R. Mimb Baheng

27 · L. Gadegbeku

5 · L. Rajot

10 · B. Brahimi

56 · A. Mbaye

18 · J. Sebas

Laval

4-3-1-2

1 M. Hautbois

23 E. Mouton

24 S. Bane

18 A. Lo

35 L. Samb

6 S. Sanna

21 A. Beaudouin

22 J. Gaudin

31 M. Houdayer

28 A. Kante

20 E. Clavreul

Coach · David Vignes

Substitutes

40 · L. Droyaux

3 · W. Bianda

29 · M. Sidibe

14 · C. Mandouki

5 · J. Maggiotti

7 · C. Gourichy

33 · S. Mellier

11 · T. Dago

34 · A. Moussaoui

Our number · pau winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make PAU a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PAU win	43%	48%	−5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Laval win	32%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	48%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	28%	+2
PAU or draw	68%	76%	−7
PAU clean sheet	29%	–	–
Laval clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.9 5.0 2.1 1 9.5 12.0 7.4 3.1 2 7.2 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PAU down, Laval across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,827 Ligue 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PAU at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Laval away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for PAU, 1.25 for Laval. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LAV 0–1 PAU · PAU 1–0 LAV · PAU 1–1 LAV · LAV 3–1 PAU

Form · last six in Ligue 2

PAU

WLDDLW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

LAVAL

WDLLLD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
3	Reims	7	+6	13
4	Montpellier	7	+1	12
5	Metz	7	+3	10
6	Nancy	7	+1	10
7	Annecy	7	0	10
8	Sochaux	7	−1	10
9	Dijon	7	0	9
10	PAU	7	0	8
11	Dunkerque	7	−2	8
12	Guingamp	7	−2	8
13	Grenoble	7	−3	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
17	Boulogne	7	−2	5
18	Laval	7	−6	5