PAU v Grenoble

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said PAU win at 41%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: PAU was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–33
3. 1′KICK-OFF PAU v Grenoble
4. 19′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Grenoble · On: Farouq Limouri · Off: Aurélien Pelon
5. 32′Grenoble ahead on 31′ through Ugo Bonnet. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
6. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' PAU 0–1 Grenoble · Ugo Bonnet
7. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' PAU win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
8. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Grenoble win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was PAU win 36%)
9. 33′We said PAU at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
10. 33′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 13–23–64
11. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Tom Pouilly · PAU
12. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Yvann Macon · Grenoble
13. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' PAU win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
14. 45′HALF-TIME PAU 0–1 Grenoble
15. 45′SECOND HALF PAU 0–1 Grenoble
16. 46′We said PAU at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' PAU · On: Babacar Leye · Off: Abdoulaye Mbaye
18. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Bilal Brahimi · PAU
19. 56′PAU have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
20. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' PAU · On: Jeremy Sebas · Off: Cheikh Fall
21. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' PAU · On: Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Off: Tom Pouilly
22. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jessy Benet · PAU
23. 65′We said PAU at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
24. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' PAU · On: Lorenzo Rajot · Off: Bilal Brahimi
25. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Gaëtan Paquiez · PAU
26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Grenoble · On: Kyliann Fofana · Off: Leonardo Cerri
27. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' T. Debès · PAU
28. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Yohann Magnin · Grenoble
29. 77′We said PAU at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–71–13
30. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' PAU 1–1 Grenoble
31. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' PAU win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
32. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Grenoble win 84%)
33. 78′Hacene Benali scores for PAU on 77′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–73–13
34. 81′PAU have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 12–78–10
35. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' PAU win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grenoble · On: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro · Off: Ugo Bonnet
37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Grenoble · On: Lucas Bernadou · Off: Samba Lele Diba
38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Grenoble · On: Nesta Zahui · Off: Yvann Macon
39. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Hacene Benali · PAU
40. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Farouq Limouri · Grenoble
41. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Yohann Magnin · Grenoble
42. 89′We published PAU at 41%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
43. 89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
44. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' PAU 2–1 Grenoble
45. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' PAU win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
46. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' PAU win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 91%)
47. 90′89′: Lorenzo Rajot on the scoresheet for PAU, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
48. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Clement Vidal · Grenoble
49. FTFULL TIME PAU 2–1 Grenoble
50. FTPAU 2–1 Grenoble · PAU win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.