Nantes v Dunkerque

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nantes win at 41%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Nantes v Dunkerque
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Nantes was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
4. 29′We published Nantes at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
5. 29′29′: Kelvin Amian on the scoresheet for Nantes, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–10
6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Nantes 1–0 Dunkerque
7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Nantes win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
9. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Gaëtan Robail · Dunkerque
10. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Nantes win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
11. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Nantes 1–1 Dunkerque
12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Nantes win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
13. 39′Dunkerque level it on 38′ through Egor Prutsev. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–36–29
14. 43′We said Nantes at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–23–66
15. 43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 10–23–66
16. 43′Gaëtan Robail scores for Dunkerque on 43′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–23–66
17. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Nantes 1–2 Dunkerque
18. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Nantes win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
19. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Dunkerque win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Nantes win 10%)
20. 47′We said Nantes at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
21. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Adrian Lebeau · Dunkerque
22. 47′SECOND HALF Nantes 1–2 Dunkerque
23. 48′HALF-TIME Nantes 1–2 Dunkerque
24. 59′We said Nantes at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
25. 59′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
26. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Nantes 1–3 Dunkerque
27. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Nantes win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
28. 60′59′: Gaëtan Robail on the scoresheet for Dunkerque, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
29. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nantes · On: Fabien Centonze · Off: Fode Doucoure
30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nantes · On: Igniatius Ganago · Off: Wilitty Younoussa
31. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nantes · On: Balthazar Pierret · Off: Ibrahima Sissoko
32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dunkerque · On: Khalil Ayari · Off: Egor Prutsev
33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dunkerque · On: Steven​ N'Zonzi · Off: Théna Massock
34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nantes · On: Louis Leroux · Off: Thomas Robinet
35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nantes · On: Antoine Joujou · Off: Killian Corredor
36. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Kelvin Amian · Nantes
37. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dunkerque · On: Arthylio Nade · Off: Souleymane Keita
38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dunkerque · On: M'Baye Niang · Off: Gaëtan Robail
39. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Balthazar Pierret · Nantes
40. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Abner · Dunkerque
41. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dunkerque · On: Franck Leroy Atoen · Off: Jordan Morel
42. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
43. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Nantes 2–3 Dunkerque
44. 91′Nantes pull one back on 90′ through Ryad Hachem. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
45. 96′Full time, 2–3. We called Nantes at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
46. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Lucas Perrin · Nantes
47. FTFULL TIME Nantes 2–3 Dunkerque
48. FTNantes 2–3 Dunkerque · Nantes win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.