Nantes v Clermont Foot prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NantesDrawClermont Foot

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nantes 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nantes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nantes 45%, draw 26%, Clermont Foot 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Nantes v Clermont FootBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Nantes win45%

Draw26%

Clermont Foot win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade de la Beaujoire

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nantes

Clermont Foot

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the French Ligue 2

Last match: 23 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Nantes	9	−5	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Phenix Capital ‘still hopes to finalise’ acquiring FC Nantes, despite owner Waldemar Kita’s announcement to halt talksGet French Football News · 22 Oct 13:29 · Nantes

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nantes winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Nantes a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nantes v Clermont Foot~~1.44 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~15 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nantes win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Clermont Foot win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Nantes or draw	71%	–	–
Nantes clean sheet	34%	–	–
Clermont Foot clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 8.6 4.8 1 11.3 12.4 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nantes down, Clermont Foot across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 Ligue 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nantes at home: 1.00 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Clermont Foot away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Nantes, 1.10 for Clermont Foot. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NAN 1–2 CLE · CLE 0–1 NAN · CLE 0–0 NAN · NAN 1–1 CLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 4 Sept

NANTES

WLWDLL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1

CLERMONT FOOT

DDDLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Nancy	10	+4	19
3	Montpellier	9	+6	18
4	Reims	9	+8	17
5	PAU	10	+3	17
6	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
7	Annecy	10	+2	16
8	Metz	10	+2	14
9	Dijon	10	−1	12
10	Dunkerque	10	−2	12
11	Guingamp	10	−2	11
12	Sochaux	10	−4	11
13	Rodez	10	−6	10
14	Boulogne	9	0	9
15	Nantes	9	−5	8
16	Grenoble	10	−8	8
17	Clermont Foot	10	−5	7
18	Laval	10	−8	6