Nancy v Laval prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Nancy 1–0 Laval NANCY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nancy win~~41%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.519

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nancy win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nancy 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Nancy v Laval
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Esteban Mouton · Laval
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' David Vignes · Laval
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' William Bianda · Laval
30′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Teddy Bouriaud · Laval
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Trevis Dago · Laval
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Nancy win 36%)
45′Nancy have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–41–26
45′HALF-TIME Nancy 0–0 Laval
45′SECOND HALF Nancy 0–0 Laval
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Nancy win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
50′8 shots for Nancy, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–44–25
55′We said Nancy at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–47–24
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Nancy · On: Zakaria Fdaouch · Off: Nordine Kandil
60′🟨 YELLOW · 53' David Vignes · Laval
65′We said Nancy at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Laval · On: Oumar Konaté · Off: Trevis Dago
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Laval · On: Aboubakary Kante · Off: Ethan Clavreul
68′We said Nancy at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Nancy 1–0 Laval
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Nancy win: 41% at kick-off, 82% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Nancy win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 59%)
69′68′: Zakaria Fdaouch on the scoresheet for Nancy, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
74′We said Nancy at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nancy · On: Kouroufia Kebe · Off: Jeremy Gelin
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nancy · On: Chafik El Hansar · Off: Pape Meissa Ba
80′We said Nancy at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Chafik Gourichy · Laval
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Laval · On: Alessio Beaudouin · Off: Teddy Bouriaud
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Laval · On: Amine Moussaoui · Off: Esteban Mouton
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Nancy win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
87′We said Nancy at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Laval · On: Jules Gaudin · Off: Layousse Samb
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Chafik El Hansar · Nancy
FTFULL TIME Nancy 1–0 Laval
FTNancy 1–0 Laval · Nancy win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nancy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nancy 41%, draw 27%, Laval 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Nancy v LavalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nancy win41%

Draw27%

Laval win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStade Marcel-Picot

RefereeRemi Landry

Line-ups

Nancy

4-2-3-1

Laval

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nancy

Laval

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the French Ligue 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nancy	9	+3	16
18	Laval	9	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nancy

4-2-3-1

1 E. Basilio

4 N. Fernandez-Veliz

77 Y. Nahounou

21 E. Mendy

44 E. Tacafred

25 J. Gélin

8 W. Bouabdelli

9 I. Housni

70 N. Kandil

12 El Hadari

5 P. Meïssa Ba

Coach · O. Tanchot

Substitutes

11 · I. Cisse

45 · C. El Hansar

7 · Z. Fdaouch

17 · Mamadou Fofana II

6 · K. Kebe

30 · G. Lembet

22 · L. Ndenbe

29 · N. Obougoujacquet

14 · N. Saint-Ruf

Laval

4-3-1-2

1 M. Hautbois

23 E. Mouton

24 S. Bane

3 W. Bianda

35 Layousse Samb

6 S. Sanna

8 T. Bouriaud

7 Chafik Gourichy

31 M. Houdayer

11 T. Dago

20 E. Clavreul

Coach · David Vignes

Substitutes

34 · A. Moussaoui

14 · C. Mandouki

18 · A. Lô

9 · O. Konate

28 · A. Kanté

22 · J. Gaudin

40 · L. Droyaux

21 · Alessio Beaudouin

29 · M. Sidibe

Our number · nancy winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market58%

Us41%

~~Market~~58%

We make Nancy a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nancy v Laval~~1.36 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 6~~5 v 18

~~The market · Nancy win~~58% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nancy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nancy win	41%	58%	−17
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Laval win	32%	19%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Nancy or draw	68%	81%	−13
Nancy clean sheet	32%	–	–
Laval clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.4 9.3 5.4 2.1 1 10.9 12.7 7.2 2.8 2 7.4 8.5 4.9 3 3.4 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nancy down, Laval across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,845 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nancy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Laval away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Nancy, 1.16 for Laval. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAV 1–1 NAN · NAN 0–2 LAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligue 2 this season · since 28 Aug

NANCY

WLLWWW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

LAVAL

LLLDLD0–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	9	+14	22
2	Montpellier	9	+6	18
3	Reims	9	+8	17
4	RED Star FC 93	9	+2	17
5	Nancy	9	+3	16
6	PAU	9	+2	14
7	Metz	9	+2	13
8	Annecy	9	0	13
9	Dijon	9	0	12
10	Dunkerque	9	−2	11
11	Sochaux	9	−2	11
12	Boulogne	9	0	9
13	Guingamp	9	−4	8
14	Nantes	9	−5	8
15	Grenoble	9	−7	8
16	Clermont Foot	9	−3	7
17	Rodez	9	−7	7
18	Laval	9	−7	6