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Nancy v Guingamp

Nancy

1–0Full time

Guingamp

Ligue 2 · FRI 9 OCT · Stade Marcel-Picot

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Nancy 1–0 Guingamp GUINGAMP WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guingamp win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.648

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guingamp win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guingamp was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Nancy v Guingamp
33′7.0 shots for Nancy, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–34–35
38′Nancy have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 30–36–34
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Guingamp win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Nancy 0–0 Guingamp
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Walid Bouabdeli · Nancy
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Jeovanni Dianganga · Guingamp
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Kouroufia Kebe · Nancy
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Amine Hemia · Guingamp
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Guingamp · On: Teddy Andami Averlant · Off: Samir Ben Brahim Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Guingamp · On: Amadou Samoura · Off: Florent Sanchez Da Silva Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Guingamp · On: Stanislas Kielt · Off: Brandon Bokangu Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Nancy · On: Zakaria Fdaouch · Off: Nordine Kandil Corrected
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Guingamp
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Kouroufia Kebe · Nancy
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Tanguy Ahile · Guingamp
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nancy · On: Logan Ndenbe · Off: Ilyes Housni Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Nancy · On: Jeremy Gelin · Off: Elydjah Mendy Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Guingamp · On: Tom Ducrocq · Off: Tanguy Ahile Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Albin Demouchy · Guingamp
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nancy · On: Ibrahim cisse · Off: Walid Bouabdeli Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Nancy · On: Chafik El Hansar · Off: El Hadari Raheriniaina Corrected
94′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Guingamp
94′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Albin Demouchy · Guingamp
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Nancy 1–0 Guingamp
FTFULL TIME Nancy 1–0 Guingamp
FTNancy 1–0 Guingamp · Guingamp win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nancy win35%

Draw26%

Guingamp win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade Marcel-Picot

Referee · Henry Gabriel

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Nancy

4-2-3-1

1 E. Basilio

4 N. Fernandez

77 Y. Nahounou

21 E. Mendy

44 E. Tacafred

6 K. Kebe

8 W. Bouabdelli

9 I. Housni

70 N. Kandil

12 E. H. Raheriniaina

5 P. M. Ba

Coach · Oswald Tanchot

Substitutes

30 · G. Lembet

22 · L. Ndenbe

14 · N. Saint-Ruf

17 · M. Fofana

33 · L. Schnepp

25 · J. Gelin

45 · C. El Hansar

11 · S. Cisse

7 · Z. Fdaouch

Guingamp

4-4-2

16 A. Ortola

2 E. Koffi

36 A. Demouchy

24 J. Dianganga

5 T. Ollila

20 S. Ben Brahim

4 D. Louiserre

21 T. Ahile

8 F. Sanchez Da Silva

10 A. Hemia

22 B. Bokangu

Coach · Sylvain Ripoll

Substitutes

1 · T. Bartouche-Selbonne

3 · J. Matumona

35 · N. Fondja

11 · T. Averlant

32 · I. Diakite

25 · T. Ducrocq

31 · J. Matondo

17 · A. Samoura

18 · S. Kielt

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nancy

4-2-3-1

1 E. Basilio

4 N. Fernandez

77 Y. Nahounou

21 E. Mendy

44 E. Tacafred

6 K. Kebe

8 W. Bouabdelli

9 I. Housni

70 N. Kandil

12 E. H. Raheriniaina

5 P. M. Ba

Coach · Oswald Tanchot

Substitutes

30 · G. Lembet

22 · L. Ndenbe

14 · N. Saint-Ruf

17 · M. Fofana

33 · L. Schnepp

25 · J. Gelin

45 · C. El Hansar

11 · S. Cisse

7 · Z. Fdaouch

Guingamp

4-4-2

16 A. Ortola

2 E. Koffi

36 A. Demouchy

24 J. Dianganga

5 T. Ollila

20 S. Ben Brahim

4 D. Louiserre

21 T. Ahile

8 F. Sanchez Da Silva

10 A. Hemia

22 B. Bokangu

Coach · Sylvain Ripoll

Substitutes

1 · T. Bartouche-Selbonne

3 · J. Matumona

35 · N. Fondja

11 · T. Averlant

32 · I. Diakite

25 · T. Ducrocq

31 · J. Matondo

17 · A. Samoura

18 · S. Kielt

Our number · guingamp winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Guingamp a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guingamp win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nancy win	35%	45%	−10
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Guingamp win	39%	28%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Nancy or draw	61%	72%	−11
Nancy clean sheet	25%	–	–
Guingamp clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 9.5 6.6 3.1 1 8.8 12.3 8.4 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.4 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nancy down, Guingamp across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,827 Ligue 2 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nancy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Guingamp away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Nancy, 1.38 for Guingamp. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAN 0–3 GUI · GUI 2–2 NAN · GUI 3–1 NAN · NAN 2–1 GUI

Form · last six in Ligue 2

NANCY

LWWLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–3

GUINGAMP

WLDDWL1–0 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saint Etienne	7	+11	16
2	RED Star FC 93	7	+2	14
3	Reims	7	+6	13
4	Montpellier	7	+1	12
5	Metz	7	+3	10
6	Nancy	7	+1	10
7	Annecy	7	0	10
8	Sochaux	7	−1	10
9	Dijon	7	0	9
10	PAU	7	0	8
11	Dunkerque	7	−2	8
12	Guingamp	7	−2	8
13	Grenoble	7	−3	8
14	Rodez	7	−2	7
15	Nantes	7	−4	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	−2	6
17	Boulogne	7	−2	5
18	Laval	7	−6	5